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Old 12-04-2005, 01:27 PM   #39 (permalink)
Aordolin
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agian your missing the point. Yes I realize that the numbers are close but your completely disregarding the reasons why the numbers are low. closers get injured are ineffective.

Reposting this from another thread...

2005 MLB Closer Stats (source ESPN.com)

Baltimore - BJ Ryan 36 Team:38 Pct:94.7%
Arizona - Valverde 15, Lyon 14, Bruney 12 Team:45 Pct:33.3%
Atlanta - Reitsma 15, Kolb 11, Farnsworth 10 Team: 38 Pct:39.4%
Boston - Foulke 15, Timlin 13, Schilling 9 Team: 38 Pct:39.4%
ChiCubs - Dempster 33 Team: 39 Pct:84.6%
ChiSox- Hermanson 34 Team: 54 Pct:62.9%
CinReds - Weathers 15, Graves 10 Team: 31 Pct:48.4%
Cleveland - Wickman 45 Team: 51 Pct:88.2%
Colorado - Fuentes 31 Team 37 Pct:83.8%
Detroit - Urbina 9, Percival 8 Team 38 Pct:23.7%
Florida - Jones 40 Team 42 Pct:95.2%
Houston - Lidge 42 Team 45 Pct:93.3%
KC - MacDougal 21 Team: 25 Pct:84.0%
LAAngels - Rodriguez 45 Team: 54 Pct:83.3%
LADodgers - Brazoban 21, Gagne 8 Team: 40 Pct:52.5%
Milwaukee - Turnbow 39 Team: 46 Pct:84.8%
Minnesota - Nathan 43 Team: 44 Pct:97.7%
NYMets - Looper 28 Team 38 Pct:73.7
NYYanks - Rivera 43 Team 46 Pct:93.5
Oakland - Street 23, Dotel 7 Team: 38 Pct:60.5%
Philadelphia - Wagner 38 Team: 40 Pct:95.0%
Pittsburg - Mesa 27 Team: 35 Pct:77.1%
SanDeigo - Hoffman 43 Team 45 Pct:95.5%
SanFransico- Walker 23, Benitez 19 Team: 46 Pct:50.0%
Seattle - Guardado 36 Team: 39 Pct:92.3
StLouis - Isringhausen 39 Team: 48 Pct:81.3%
TampaBay - Baez 41 Team: 43 Pct:95.3%
Texas - Cordero 37 Team: 46 Pct:80.4%
Toronto - Batista 31 Team: 35 Pct:88.6%
Washington - Cordero 47 Team: 51 Pct:92.2%

Ok time to break it down:

10 teams with 90% or above
19 teams with 80% or above
21 teams with 70% or above

9 teams were under 69%. Ok why?

Dodgers - Gagne was injured almost all year, bullpen by committee or hed by in that 90% or above
Oakland - Dotel injured, Street comes in during the season. I dont have the numbers since he became the closer but I bet he was 90% too.
Atlanta - Kolb is horrible, their bullpen is a disaster since moving Smoltz to rotation. So ofcourse they are going to be in committee situation
Cincinatti - Graves disaster, team is a disaster. You know you got problems with David Weathers is your closer
Boston - Foulke spent a good portion of year on DL.
ChicagoWSox - Hermanson had 34, but I dont know what happened to him, was he injured? Cant explain that one.

San Fransico, Arizona, Detroit - ? I dont know what their deal was besides just being bad

So thats 955 saves from each teams top save man, and 1255 total saves for 76.1%

If I take out the teams with injuries or bullpen issues and just keep the 22 solid bullpens in (I kept White Sox in) the percentage becomes 87.0%

The moral is teams who have a solid closer use it way more than 66% and way more like 85% and above.

Let me break down my league I was posting earlier. Remember I turned off injuries. So injury is not a factor.

Year 1
Team 1: Closer: 28 Team: 46 Pct:60.9%
Team 2: Closer: 20 Team: 30 Pct:66.7%
Team 3: Closer: 32 Team: 46 Pct:69.6%
Team 4: Closer: 29 Team: 48 Pct:60.4%
Team 5: Closer: 26 Team: 35 Pct:74.3%
Team 6: Closer: 23 Team: 35 Pct:65.7%
Team 7: Closer: 30 Team: 43 Pct:69.8%
Team 8: Closer: 39 Team: 53 Pct:73.6%
Team 9: Closer: 24 Team: 38 Pct:63.2%
Team 10: Closer: 30 Team: 38 Pct:78.9%
Team 11: Closer: 32 Team: 52 Pct:61.5%
Team 12: Closer: 32 Team: 42 Pct:76.2%
Team 13: Closer: 27 Team: 42 Pct:64.3%
Team 14: Closer: 8 Team: 28 Pct:28.6%
Team 15: Closer: 19 Team: 40 Pct:47.5%
Team 16: Closer: 20 Team: 34 Pct:58.8%
Team 17: Closer: 28 Team: 37 Pct:75.7%
Team 18: Closer: 27 Team: 33 Pct:81.8%
Team 19: Closer: 37 Team: 48 Pct:77.1%
Team 20: Closer: 29 Team: 50 Pct:58.0%

Ok compare my numbers with MLB. The totals are similar, I have fewer teams but the team save totals are pretty much identical. Remember no injuries are on so thats not a factor as it was in the MLB numbers. I can post all the seasons data if you want but they are all comparable to this. ONE TEAM had a better than 80% usage of its closer, compare that to 19 of 30 teams in 2005.

The issue is the game does not put in the closer. Its not whether the numbers end up in the end to be equal to what that should be in MLB. THEY ARENT SUPPOSED TO BE 66% FOR ALL TEAMS!!!

Quote:
Played with some more numbers, going back a bit further, but still the same current era (1980-current).

1990 AL 637 446 70.02%
1991 AL 618 443 71.68%
1992 AL 619 461 74.47%

So these are even closer to 66%. Then I decided to go back a bit further into the 80's, oh, some of you are not gonna like these numbers.

1984 AL 513 310 60.43%
1985 AL 522 307 58.81%
1986 NL 480 296 61.67%
1987 NL 496 274 55.24%

One could argue that for the 80's the game is actually overly using the closer. In the 21st century it appears the number is around 75%, in the 90's 70-75%, and in the 80's it was 55-65%. I think the game using closers 66% of the time is statistically a very good compromise across eras. Maybe the best thing to do is for Markus to create another era and another setting for relievers. But his current model is not broken, just a compromise.
Well I am talking about modern numbers. I grant you in the 80s the closer was just starting to come into its own. So I dont doubt you at all that those numbers are correct. The game has changed. OK so if someone wants to play in that era fine, but what about those who want to play with modern settings, how are we supposed to do that?
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