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Old 01-22-2003, 11:28 AM   #18 (permalink)
kq76
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Lightbulb

The way ootp calculates a save opportunity is faulty. Saves + Blown Saves + Holds does not account for the total Save Opportunities.

Let's think about it. If you really have an opportunity at a save, you'll either earn the save or you'll blow the save. If you're taken out of the game before you have the opportunity to earn the save, that cannot be counted as a save opportunity because you did not get the full opportunity!

For example, if Joe Schmoe enters the game in a save situation, records an out, and leaves the game never having relinquished the lead, he will get a hold. But did he get an opportunity at a save? No, he did not. So a save opportunity should not be added to his total!

What Saves + Blown Saves + Holds is closer to is a "Save Situation", which is completely different than a Save Opportunity. At first I thought you might include blown holds, but that would probably be the same as a blown save.

Now when Scott mentioned that he uses Blown Saves instead, I think he is onto something. The best reliever should probably have the lowest Blown Save %, calculated as Blown Saves / (Saves + Blown Saves + Holds). As long as there are holds included in Save %, it is not a good indicator of anything.

EDIT:

Looking at it closer, this is how I'm determining my relief pitcher award:

The player with the highest (# of Player i's Save Situations / # of Save Situations for Player with Most Save Situations)*(Player i's (1 - Blown Save %) / Highest % of (1 - Blown Save %) wins.

This weights equally highest # of save situations and lowest blown save %. Otherwise, a player with 1 save opportunity with no blown saves would win.

If anyone has any better ideas, I'd love to read them.

Last edited by kq76; 01-22-2003 at 12:18 PM.
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