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Bristolduke · 06-11-2006, 10:37 AM

At the risk of generating another "Oh my god it's terrible" thread, I was curious if anyone as "investigated" trading. I have seen, on different posts, how bad the AI is in areas. As an expert in AI development (sorry I'd have to kill you to discuss), I want to point out the enormous challenges in this type software. Independent thought via software, vice a massive rules matrix is difficult, but of course you must first agree on the intelligence you are simulating (no barbs intended here). Thu sI would like to focus this discussion on trading in one league, I believe from there we can discuss the multiple leagues. I also expect this will impact extensions. Knowing how difficult it is to test AI software, if there are bugs, and I'm sure there are, we will need lots of data to help Marcus and others.

I did a simple test using 2001 historical season. Three runs were may, one very low trading frequency, one average, one very high. Average difficulty and neutral preference. On average 61 trades were made, on very low 23 trades were made, and on very high 88 trades were made.

Some early returns were that the Reds always traded, Michael Tucker, Hal Morris and Dmitri Young early. All three are "expendable" in the sense of Casey will play first, Young is listed at 3B where Aaron Boone sits and the Reds have several OF. They also need catching and pitching and all three trades netted these items.

So far so good. In browsing some of the trades I found this one on the average setting.

Traded 27-year old left fielder G. Anderson and $3,000,000 in cash to the Atlanta Braves, getting 36-year old shortstop W. Weiss in return.

Now this looks dumb. However upon further review, Anaheim was in need of a SS and had OFs to deal. They also have on their team setting a very strong (one notch from max) preference for veterans on their roster. Now is the trade still a good one, well the point of view has changed. We may not like it, but the AI "may" be working within parameters. Anaheim made 5 trades in the season 4 invloved younger players for older players (the 5th was for the same age)

Remember Artificial Inteligence is not "perfect intelligence" nor "stadic/predictable intelligence". It is simulating independent thought along a defined set of knowledge based parameters.

I haven't investigated all the parameters yet, but besides the three settings in game setup, both the team and the GM have settings for each team. (It appears that you can't change the individual coaches preference, but you can the team - thus making it different than the GM).

In my tests, Jan, Jun and Jul were popular months, indicating league standing and perceived weaknesses for each team is a factor. I would also believe the financials are factors. An open question is the owner a factor?

As I indicated I would appreciate anyone else's thoughts investigations. I will contiue to work the analysis as time permits.

06-11-2006, 10:37 AM	#1 (permalink)
Bristolduke Major Leagues Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 446 Thanks: 1 Thanked 72x in 59 posts	Trading in OOTB2006 At the risk of generating another "Oh my god it's terrible" thread, I was curious if anyone as "investigated" trading. I have seen, on different posts, how bad the AI is in areas. As an expert in AI development (sorry I'd have to kill you to discuss), I want to point out the enormous challenges in this type software. Independent thought via software, vice a massive rules matrix is difficult, but of course you must first agree on the intelligence you are simulating (no barbs intended here). Thu sI would like to focus this discussion on trading in one league, I believe from there we can discuss the multiple leagues. I also expect this will impact extensions. Knowing how difficult it is to test AI software, if there are bugs, and I'm sure there are, we will need lots of data to help Marcus and others. I did a simple test using 2001 historical season. Three runs were may, one very low trading frequency, one average, one very high. Average difficulty and neutral preference. On average 61 trades were made, on very low 23 trades were made, and on very high 88 trades were made. Some early returns were that the Reds always traded, Michael Tucker, Hal Morris and Dmitri Young early. All three are "expendable" in the sense of Casey will play first, Young is listed at 3B where Aaron Boone sits and the Reds have several OF. They also need catching and pitching and all three trades netted these items. So far so good. In browsing some of the trades I found this one on the average setting. Traded 27-year old left fielder G. Anderson and $3,000,000 in cash to the Atlanta Braves, getting 36-year old shortstop W. Weiss in return. Now this looks dumb. However upon further review, Anaheim was in need of a SS and had OFs to deal. They also have on their team setting a very strong (one notch from max) preference for veterans on their roster. Now is the trade still a good one, well the point of view has changed. We may not like it, but the AI "may" be working within parameters. Anaheim made 5 trades in the season 4 invloved younger players for older players (the 5th was for the same age) Remember Artificial Inteligence is not "perfect intelligence" nor "stadic/predictable intelligence". It is simulating independent thought along a defined set of knowledge based parameters. I haven't investigated all the parameters yet, but besides the three settings in game setup, both the team and the GM have settings for each team. (It appears that you can't change the individual coaches preference, but you can the team - thus making it different than the GM). In my tests, Jan, Jun and Jul were popular months, indicating league standing and perceived weaknesses for each team is a factor. I would also believe the financials are factors. An open question is the owner a factor? As I indicated I would appreciate anyone else's thoughts investigations. I will contiue to work the analysis as time permits.