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Old 07-07-2006, 08:04 PM   #1 (permalink)
bulldog55
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Join Date: Sep 2002
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Producing accurate historical stats in a fictional league

I'm going to need some help doing this, as my tests have been producing some crazy results. I'm starting a fictional league in 1870 and simming to 2006. In 1870, I entered the league totals (just the totals themselves, not the modifiers/PCMs) from a 1901 MLB historical import, since I figured 1901 stats would be close enough for testing purposes. I checked the option to import league totals each year, but not to import PCMs.

1870 was insane. Guys with 100+ homeruns, 255 RBI overruns, ERAs approaching 10. I went ahead and simmed 1871 without touching anything, seeing what would happen if it imported totals on its own. That went much better; there were 15 homeruns hit the entire season between 26 teams. Compare that to the '71 NA where there were 47 between 9 teams. The ratios are markedly different, but it was much closer and more realistic than the year before. Then came 1872, and once again I had three-digit homerun hitters and 255 overruns.

I looked at the league total modifier ratio for '72 and it was much different than '71. The ratio was >.6, as opposed to the <.01 in '71. I don't know what the deal with the era stats are, but that one seems way off. I don't know if it's the fault of the database or if something I'm doing or the way I set up the league is throwing them off.


In short, I can't get accurate stats and I don't know what I need to do to get them. I've looked through the modifier/MLE sticky thread, but that doesn't seem to really address the matter at hand (though I admittedly have not waded through the entire thing).

Has anyone really gotten to the bottom of this? I've searched for all different terms and haven't found anything that begins to help me. If I'm just not looking in the right place, a link would be much appreciated. If this hasn't been fully figured out yet, it needs to be.

How can one create a league at some point in the past and get reasonably accurate statistics? Do you edit the PCMs? The league totals? The league total modifiers? All of them? Two of them? I'm at a loss. Given the alternate universeness, it doesn't need to perfectly align to MLB history, but when the 1872 leader hits 136 homeruns, something needs to be done differently.
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