OOTP Developments Forums - View Single Post - Feedback Requested: Tweaked Settings for Aging Curves

Seviien · 07-27-2006, 12:06 PM

Curtis,
Taking a rigorous look at development rates is a bit too cumbersome. Keep in mind, though, that the AB and IP curves track MLB data pretty well through the early 20s. It would be difficult for that to occur if development rates were wildly different than in real life.

Annecdotally, while I was testing I did take a look at a number of players to see how long they had spent in the minors. I was pleasantly surprised. Most players took about 3 years, but there were a few "projects" that took about 5-6 years. If there is a weakness, I believe it's that the exceptionally strong players only spend a season or so in the minors. Fortunately, that's not too difficult to find plausible. Just look at Miguel Cabrera and Andruw Jones.

With respect to "peak" years... that's a bit subjective. What I can say is that in the test I ran from 1901 to 1979, the average age of batters with the highest VORP (80th to 95th percentile bracket) was 29.01. I think that would put the peak years in your 29-31 range.

Giants,
The accuracy of the curves are somewhat limited by the dynamics of the game. If I could have gotten curves that yeilded a more accurate representation of players in their mid to late 30's, I would have. The problem is that achieving better fit for the older players distorts fit for the younger ones. I don't think that there's any issue with the batters, but yeah, I'd like to see some older pitchers in there. I just couldn't get them without causing an unrealisticly small number of players in their early 20s.

The batting curve is pretty accurate until around 35, but keep in mind that only 8% of the ABs in MLB were made by players older than 35.

The IP curve begins to break from reality at about 33. Pitchers 33 and older log ~20% of the innings in MLB, so that is more of an issue. Still... it's not at all bad.

If you're looking for a good starting point, I'd say the settings as published are a good spot. There are 23 tests and ~30 hours behind them

To tweak the pitching curve more to your liking, I would suggest first lowering the aging modifier to 0.001 or 0.003. Look at the results. If you're pitchers are too old, bump the dev modifier up by 0.050. If instead the pitchers are still to young after adjusting the aging modifier, then take the development modifier down by 0.100.

07-27-2006, 12:06 PM	#67 (permalink)
Seviien All Star Reserve Join Date: Mar 2004 Posts: 920 Thanks: 1 Thanked 19x in 11 posts	Curtis, Taking a rigorous look at development rates is a bit too cumbersome. Keep in mind, though, that the AB and IP curves track MLB data pretty well through the early 20s. It would be difficult for that to occur if development rates were wildly different than in real life. Annecdotally, while I was testing I did take a look at a number of players to see how long they had spent in the minors. I was pleasantly surprised. Most players took about 3 years, but there were a few "projects" that took about 5-6 years. If there is a weakness, I believe it's that the exceptionally strong players only spend a season or so in the minors. Fortunately, that's not too difficult to find plausible. Just look at Miguel Cabrera and Andruw Jones. With respect to "peak" years... that's a bit subjective. What I can say is that in the test I ran from 1901 to 1979, the average age of batters with the highest VORP (80th to 95th percentile bracket) was 29.01. I think that would put the peak years in your 29-31 range. Giants, The accuracy of the curves are somewhat limited by the dynamics of the game. If I could have gotten curves that yeilded a more accurate representation of players in their mid to late 30's, I would have. The problem is that achieving better fit for the older players distorts fit for the younger ones. I don't think that there's any issue with the batters, but yeah, I'd like to see some older pitchers in there. I just couldn't get them without causing an unrealisticly small number of players in their early 20s. The batting curve is pretty accurate until around 35, but keep in mind that only 8% of the ABs in MLB were made by players older than 35. The IP curve begins to break from reality at about 33. Pitchers 33 and older log ~20% of the innings in MLB, so that is more of an issue. Still... it's not at all bad. If you're looking for a good starting point, I'd say the settings as published are a good spot. There are 23 tests and ~30 hours behind them To tweak the pitching curve more to your liking, I would suggest first lowering the aging modifier to 0.001 or 0.003. Look at the results. If you're pitchers are too old, bump the dev modifier up by 0.050. If instead the pitchers are still to young after adjusting the aging modifier, then take the development modifier down by 0.100.