Quote:
Originally Posted by injury log
My first triola,
GB% appears linear in hits allowed on balls in play, predictably. Assuming GB% affects BABIP linearly, then the game produces a 0.273 BABIP for a 0% GB%, increasing by 0.0047 per 10% increase in GB%. So, baselining at 550 AB, and using the above:
HA = BIP*[0.273 + 0.0047*[GB%/10]] + HR
HA = [550 - K - HR][0.273 + 0.0047*[GB%/10]] + HR
HA = [550 - 0.95*S - 10 - 38 + 0.18*M]*[0.273 + 0.0047*[GB%/10]] + 38 - 0.18*M
HA = [502 - 0.95*S + 0.18*M]*[0.273 + 0.00047*GB%] + 38 - 0.18*M
and the final formula:
HA = 175 - 0.26*S - 0.13*M + G/100*(23.6 - .045*S + 0.0085*M)
I've tried with two sets of values (Movement and Stuff > 100 in both cases), and the formula is dead on- doing this all by hand, so it isn't quick to batch test numbers.
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I hope you realize that the estimator is not reliable to any high degree of precision.
For example, testing actual results vs. ratings, one finds that an OOTP pitcher's GB% does not appear to have a statistically significant influence on his BABIP. There are calculation-order reasons for this that have been discussed in other areas.