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Minors (Rookie Ball)
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 30
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Alright. Here's my take on the Detroit Tigers.
Sean Casey - Should have a little higher contact rating. He is a career .300 hitter (.302) and his hitting .297 in 2007. He had an off year last year, but that was partly to adjusting to AL pitching. I think his contact should be raised to around 131 overall, to equal a projected .296 average or so, up from the currently projected .280.
Gary Sheffield - Gary is still primarily an outfielder. The Yankees experimented with him at first base, but they experiment EVERYONE at first base. Leyland has said that Gary will NOT be playing first base at all this year. He probably shouldn't even have a rating for 1B. He should have a rating for LF as well as RF. Also, he is projected by OOTP to bat around .276 and draw only 62 BB. Gary is a career .297 hitter and has walked more than he has struckout in a season the majority of his career. He should definitely have a higher "Eye" rating (maybe in the 130s, he already has 48 BB this year) and a higher contact rating (maybe close to 130). His power should also be increased. Gary had an off year last year because of injuries and only played in 39 games. He is on pace to hit 40 HRs again this year and add to his 455 career home runs, which should warrant a power increase to maybe high 140s, low 150s. He is still one of the most feared hitters in the league.
Omar Infante - He has played 21 career games in CF, but has played 12 this year. He is Jim Leyland's primary backup CF that plays against most lefties, because of Granderson's struggles against LHPs. He has 0 career errors in CF and should probably get a decent rating there.
Placido Polanco - Here's another career .300 hitter, maybe boost his contact a bit, but a projected .293 is probably somewhat fair
Ramon Santiago - Horrible hitter, freakin sweet fielder. His infield arm and range should be increased to maybe the 150s or so.
Carlos Guillen - I said earlier that Sheffield should lose his 1B rating, I think Guillen should gain a 1B rating. Not a very high one, but he can hold is own at 1B and is 3rd on Leyland's depth chart as far as first basemen is concerned. Although, I think his infield ratings might be a bit too high. The only reason Guillen is playing 1B more is because his SS skills are severely laking ever since he got injured a couple years ago. He still has a strong arm, but his range has decreased and his errors are up. Offense looks good though.
Curtis Granderson - Alright, last year was his rookie season. He had some ups and some downs, specifically the strikeouts. I am all for having a low "Avoid K" rating, but I think potentially his ratings are all too low. We are beginning to see glimpses of what this kid can do. He currently has 14 3B, 22 2B, 10 HRs and is batting .294 in 2007. Like I said, his strikeouts are still a little too high, but I think we should be looking at ratings in the high 140s, low 150s for contact, gap power, and power, keeping in mind the low "Avoid K" number that will bring down his overall contact. Although, make sure his LHP is a good bit lower than RHP, he is still struggling a bit against major league LHP. The reason he's getting all of these extra base hits is because he really is quite fast. He has yet to develop the ability to read pitchers well, so his stolen base numbers aren't high (although he is 9 for 9 SB this year), but he is fast and his base running ability is really good. I think we should be looking in the 150s for speed and base running ability as well. This kid is a smart player (double-majored in college) and is such an exciting player to watch.
Magglio Ordonez - Now for the BIG one. I can see how PECOTA got this wrong. Magglio is 31, and is coming off an injury riddled 04 and 05, which caused him to not be full strength in 06, but boy is he full strength this year! Currently batting .377, 34 2B, 13 HR and 68 RBI, Magglio is on pace to have an MVP season. He has more doubles currently than he did all of last year! OOTP has him projected to hit .288, 18 HR, 29 2B, that is a lot lower than even his career average of .309, 29 HR, 40 2B. Now, do I think he will keep on this pace....yes, but I can see how pitchers will start to pitch around him more. I think ratings in the 140s, 150s for contact and gap, and 130s for power would work right.
Jeremy Bonderman - Everything looks good except he averages about 171 strikeouts a season (OOTP has him at 119), maybe move his stuff into the 120s and raise his potential just a wee bit.
Justin Verlander - Yes, I know I might still be on a "no-hitter" high, but his stuff has GOT to be higher. Also, Justin used to feature a knuckle-curve, but he had some blister problems when throwing that pitch, so he now uses a standard curveball, but WOW, what a curveball it is! After this year, he is on pace to average around 150 strikeouts and an ERA around 3.50. If anything I would raise his stuff to the mid 120s and movement to around 120. Now, if anything Justin struggles with his walking batter. He has GREAT command of his pitches, but his pitches have such great movment, they sometimes will just miss the corner. I think his potential ratings should be higher as well, he was Rookie of the Year last year, 7th in the Cy Young voting and is on his way to an even better sophmore season. To me, the sky is the limit with this guy.
Todd Jones - As much as Tiger fans wish he wasn't, Todd Jones is our closer, Zumaya should be a MR (setup man).
Macay McBride - It's sweet that he's included on the Tigers, but he's an MR
Kenny Rogers - I know that he's old, gray, and a junkball pitcher, but this dude can pitch! He should at least have movement in the 130s.
Jair Jurrjens - He is one of the Tigers' top rated pitching prospects and should have higher potential stuff, maybe high 110s
Andrew Miller - He's actually 6'6", but who's counting? I think potentially his control will be better than what he currently has, maybe around 110?
Chad Durbin - Durbin has been a pleasant surprise this year for Detroit. His previous years don't look as great, but he's got some decent stuff and his stuff rating should be in the 100s.
I guess that's all for now. Yes, I know, I am quite biased when it comes to the Tigers, and yes Yankee fans, you can stop throwing up on the floor now, I just think the Tigers offense was a little bit underated in OOTP this year. The impact of Gary Sheffield is very hard to reflect via ratings.
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