[Elendil]

2010 Preview

After losing Robbins, Bonnar, Tufts, and others, the Glacier Pilots were left with a team of no-names and an accountant for a General Manager. Every player on their roster now made the league minimum. Fan support could be expected to be minimal this year.

Considering the immense task facing them, the Pilots' front office did a pretty decent job putting together a roster of guys who had basic baseball skills, including strong defense, some speed, and smarts. The only player with any name recognition whatsoever was outfielder Boyd McNeely, formerly of Ketchikan and Peninsula, who had hit 15 homers each of the previous two years. He'd signed a league-minimum deal with the club in March.

The pitching staff looked ugly. Number one starter Mike McCutcheon had a career 4.68 ERA, including 99 K's in 173 IP.

Prediction: Last in the Seward, but perhaps not horrendous



In 2007 the Bucs had been the goats for the Robbins fiasco, and the Glacier Pilots looked set to become "Alaska's Team." But now the Bucs carried the hopes of Anchorage in the Seward Division, having finished rather strong last year.

This year the Bucs' standouts would include third baseman Nick Bedford (.298/.372/.511 last year), shortstop Ken Swerdlow (.330/.388/.474 last year, finally developing some power and eye), new outfielder Dave Bonnar, and center fielder Dave Reeve (has quietly put together a career .291/.364/.506 line in 3 years with the Bucs). They had also signed Ray Tomiak from the Jets, who'd had a legendary 2007, a downright bad 2008, and a very solid 2009 (but had faded toward the end). He was now 34.

The rotation looked iffy; it would be led by Jeff Simmons, recently claimed off waivers (!) from Peninsula (career ERA 3.76 in 220 IP). But they had some pretty decent guys beyond him, including Ken Dickson (9-12, 3.21 last year) and Pete Strelioff (7-6, 3.71 last year).

Prediction: 1st in the Seward



Last year's Seward Division champs, the Mushers fielded a squad of pretty good but not great players. They had played well as a team last year and surprised everyone by beating out Peninsula for the pennant. This year they would look much the same, with catcher Carl Preston (career .267/.371/.510), second baseman Duncan Sutherland (career .264/.347/.499), and outfielder Kelyn Birley (career .306/.382/.533) leading the offense and an apparently peaking Newt Langille (career 14-27, 4.32, last year 8-7, 4.02) the #1 starter again. Leif Morris and Vincent Robinson would fill the #2 and #3 slots but were question marks, in the one case due to youth and in the other due to an injury history.

Youngster Sean Heath was expected to make an impact at the plate this year and would start the season as the starter in right field.

Prediction: 3rd in the Seward



The Jets had been stripped bare just like the Glacier Pilots, but having gone less deeply into debt, had actually made a couple of free agent signings and could also rely on a deep minor league squad. This would be a very young team this year.

The rotation would be headed up by 21 year old Eugene Pond, who had come up last year as an injury replacement and put up decent numbers (3.69 ERA, 52 K in 76 IP). Free agent signing Eric Liger had put up a career 3.61 ERA with the Glacier Pilots. After him came rookies Dave Gibbon and Charles Pretty and a 38-year-old Trevor Wiggins, formerly of Sitka, who came in on a league minimum 1-year contract (6.31 ERA last year and more walks than strikeouts).

On offense the team was much depleted without either Ray Tomiak, who had signed with the Bucs, or Adam Joly, who had not yet signed with anyone. The team put its faith in a clutch of rookies, including catcher Dave Lepine, rushed up after just being drafted last year, second baseman John Hauk (.351/.393/.404 in 57 AB as an August callup), shortstop Mike Gaston, acquired in a trade, and outfielder John Harrow. This was definitely going to be a rebuilding year.

Prediction: 5th in the Seward, but could be horrendous



The Goldpanners had a few marquee players, such as perennial batting champion contender Gary Johnson (.364/.485/.526 last year, 2nd in Batter of the Year voting), Jimmy Williams (.315/.376/.556 career), and infield defensive wiz Bill Rogers (.275/.334/.434 career, so a little pop too), but they had lost a lot of players to free agency, including starter Chip Becker and batting champ Dirk Cluett. They had not done well last year, and they would likely do even worse this year, as their finances did not allow them any room to bring in good players. Other than Davis Crawford, every pitcher in their rotation was a rookie. This could be a bloodbath.

Prediction: Last in the Denali



The Senators, representing the fourth-largest market in the league, after Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Mat-Su, had built some fan loyalty by winning a championship with ease, but then squandered it by failing to re-sign Louis Mays, Jeremy Offredi, Wynn Dunsmore, Jeremy Hodges, Art Johannson, James Labbee, and Vincent Quick. This year's team would be virtually unrecognizable.

Their chief stars now looked to be second baseman Ralph Collette (.299/.384/.491 last year with 8 triples) on offense and the ever-popular Scott Northeast in the rotation. Doug Beard would also hit home runs for the team and Quinn Spence should be a capable #2 in the rotation. Catcher Bob Russo was still young (24), had a gun for an arm, and was still developing power. This would still be a good team, but in this competitive division it might not be enough.

Prediction: 3rd in the Denali



The King Salmon had disappointed last year, but some of their players had not. Center fielder George Henneberry had quieted the naysayers by putting up a .282/.364/.441 line (remember, he had had a .249 OBP in 2007). They also had some youngsters expected to contribute, including flashy shortstop Walt Duff and outfielder John Dugles. Catcher Carl White had quietly put up .295/.388/.477 in three seasons with the club, somehow never getting an All-Star nod.

John Mack should be a solid #1 starter for the club (career ERA 3.38). Beyond him, the rotation looked extremely sketchy, though.

Ketchikan would need to have some luck in player development to start contending in the next year or two, but at least they have put themselves on a firm financial footing.

Prediction: 4th in the Denali (but could conceivably move up)



The Grizzlies had disappointed many observers last year, due in part to the surprising collapse of third baseman Xander Eggert, who'd actually been demoted to the Training League and was now a free agent.

Over the offseason, the Grizzlies signed All-Star catcher Tim Rowsell away from the Mushers. Rowsell was not at all an offensive star, despite an eye-popping 33 doubles last year, but had a great arm. The team had also locked up first baseman Don Goodyear for 2010 (.296/.393/.515 last year). Beyond that, though, they really had no big names on offense, and in fact, they had lost several small but perhaps important pieces to their team's reasonable success to free agency.

Their #1 starter would be Stephen "Spud" Hill, who had put up breakout numbers last year (9-4, 2.33 ERA in 131 IP, 2nd in Pitcher of the Year voting). At 32, though, he didn't have much further upside. And after him, the rotation consisted of a bunch of castoffs making league minimum.

Prediction: 4th in the Seward (and could conceivably move down if the Jets' rookies work out)



Beyond All-Stars Greg Trudel and Bill Colwill, the Miners had not suffered from significant free agency attrition. They could still count on a lineup stocked with players like C Pierre-Alexandre Langlois (.327/.414/.518 last year), 1B John Brown (.300/.385/.447 last year in a down year), 2B Rene Fortier (.253/.347/.772 last year, also a down year), LF Rob Corley (.276/.373/.554 last year), and RF Dave Langille (.304/.402/.536 last year).

On the pitching side, the Miners could hope to count on the services of Will Blain for a full year, who had seemingly made a full recovery from his 2008 elbow fracture (3.66 ERA in 59 IP last year). They would also have Thierry Tremblay (11-4, 2.94 last year) and Fred Wadden (3-3, 2.80 last year).

Prediction: 1st in the Denali (a return to dominance?)



The Nicks had lost a couple of marquee free agents: 2B John Abston (.327/.389/.579) and LF Terry Kuhn (.278/.364/.473). Contract renegotiations had perhaps freed up enough cash to make a competitive offer to at least one of them.

Despite all that, this team was still formidable. Familiar names like Sellick, Leroux, Dwyer, Starr, Gaudet, and Horton still dominated the lineup. Additionally, highly touted youngster Dale Robison would start at second base (where he was a defensive black hole, granted), and another high-upside rookie, George Mullins, would man center field.

The rotation would again be headed up by lefty Chance Major (9-10, 3.72 last year, 158 strikeouts - a league record - in 131 innings), followed by Tom Pick (9-7, 3.69 last year), Mike Rancourt (11-4, 3.26 last year), Ryan Dye (4-2, 3.84 with Kodiak last year), and Greg Miner (5-7, 5.01 with AGP last year).

Prediction: 2nd in the Denali (but it will be a dogfight with the Miners)



The Oilers had lost a few regular players to free agency, but probably no one they couldn't replace from within. The team's main stars would probably be flashy second baseman Tommy Lambert (.291/.356/.360 last year), first baseman Tanner Bourque (.322/.419/.583 last year), and right fielder Lloyd Flannery (career .332/.388/.504 with Bethel).

The rotation was sketchy, but #1 starter Ron Quinton (9-6, 3.77 ERA last year) should be serviceable. The team also had some stellar defense at shortstop in weak-hitting Kevin West (seriously, the guy is a career .205/.248/.296 hitter but is an All-Star contender simply for his defense!).

Prediction: 2nd in the Seward



Sitka had done surprisingly well last year, beating last-place expectations. However, they had suffered an exodus of talent to free agency this offseason. The biggest blow was losing the best shortstop in the Alaskan game, Jonathan Bertrand (.286/.371/.538 last year).

However, they still had Connor Poapst in left to crush the long ball (career .285/.398/.543, 59 HR) and slick-fielding center fielder Jim Greene (.321/.360/.474 last year too).

The rotation wasn't a total black hole, although #1 starter John Dewitt had been rocked last year (5-12, 5.63 but 114 K in 136 IP, with 54 BB's). The rest of the rotation looked decent enough but not outstanding.

Prediction: 5th in the Denali