[jar2574]

Here are formulas to calculate expected singles, doubles, triples and HR.

I am now working on a formula for expected walks.

When I am finished I should be able to calculate expected Runs Created, which is the purpose of my whole exercise.

Each category is based on 1000 at bats. If you want to figure out expected chances based on fewer at bats, or even in any given at bat, then adjust accordingly. I used 1000 at bats to help solve rounding calculations problems.

I will use the symbol "#" to show where you plug in the rating being discussed. I will use * to show multiplication.

Expected hits.
Hits are derived from Contact Rating.
For Contact ratings 1 to 10:
(# * 20) + 65 = expected hits in 1000 at bats. A person with 1 as a contact rating is expected to get 85 hits in 1000 at bats. A person with a 10 contact rating is expected get 265 hits.

For Contact ratings 11 to 25:
((# - 10) * 10) + 265 = expected hits in 1000 at bats. A person with 11 as a contact rating is expected to get 275 hits in 1000 at bats. A person with a 25 contact rating is expected to get 415 hits.

Doubles and Triples.
Doubles and Triples are derived from Gap Rating and the proportion of doubles to triples is affected by Running Speed Rating.
For all Gap ratings:
# * 5.2 = expected doubles & triples in 1000 at bats.

This formula is off by one extra base hit for the Gap Ratings 2, 3, 8, 9, 13, 14, 18, 19, and 23.

Unfortunately, for some numbers it needed to be adjusted up and for others the expected number needed to be adjusted down. So I could not figure out a more accurate multiplier than taking Gap Rating * 5.2. Any help would be appreciated. I'm really not a math guy. In any event, the calculation was always accurate within one extra base hit, and that's good enough for me, for now.

Next, to calculate total bases from these extra base hits we need to use Running Speed Rating. Running speed does not seem to meaningfully affect the number of extra base hits, but it does affect how many triples a batter gets from among his extra base hits.

As mentioned, I am trying to eventually reach an expected runs created formula, so with doubles and triples I am only concerned with how many total bases a runner reaches based on his Gap Rating and his Running Speed Rating.

To calculate the total base value from among your extra base hits:
For Running Speed ratings 1-8:
(expected doubles + expected triples) * 2.077 = total bases from doubles and triples.

For Running Speed ratings 9-12
(expected doubles + expected triples) * 2.146 = total bases from doubles and triples.

For Running Speed ratings 13-17
(expected doubles + expected triples) *2.170 = total bases from doubles and triples.

For Running Speed ratings 18-22
(expected doubles + expected triples) *2.200 = total bases from doubles and triples.

For Running Speed ratings 23-25
(expected doubles + expected triples) *2.248 = total bases from doubles and triples.

Home Runs
Home Runs are derived from Power Rating.
For Power Ratings 1-10
# * 2.9 = expected home runs in 1000 at bats. A person with a 1 power rating is expected to hit 3 home runs in 1000 at bats (if we round 2.9 up to 3.) A person with a 10 power rating is expected to hit 29 HR in 1000 at bats.

For Power Ratings 11-25
(# - 10) * 6.2 + 29 = expected home runs in 1000 at bats.
From 11 Power Rating onward, instead of increasing by 2.9 per one rating increase the expected HR value increases by 6.2 per rating increase.

A person with a 11 Power rating is expected to hit 29 home runs in 1000 at bats. A 15 Power rating is expected to result in 54 home runs. A 25 Power rating is expected to result in 122 home runs in 1000 at bats.

Walks
Walks are derived from Eye / Plate Disipline Rating
For Eye Ratings from 1 to 10:
# * 9.09 = walks per 1000 at bats

For Eye Ratings from 11 to 25:
((#-10) * 18.17) + 91 = walks per 1000 at bats


I hope these formulas might add to your enjoyment of the game, or at least help you in drafting. I am working on an excel spreadsheet that will use these formulas to calculate Expected Runs Created. That will make my draft day and trade decisions much easier.

A lot of these multipliers may be off by a few hundreths or tenths. I got things as close as I could. I didn't want to spend several days on this, just one afternoon. So these are good enough for me, and accurate within one double, or one walk, etc. in 1000 at bats.

Now for the spreadsheet....