[Elendil]

2011 Alaskan Championship Series Preview
Mushers versus Senators

Team Statistics

The Mushers' team batting line is .253/.334/.389, while the Senators' team line is .258/.327/.380, giving the Mushers a slight advantage. However, the Mushers played in a ballpark that was roughly neutral, while the Senators played in a pitchers' park, so if anything the Senators probably have a slightly higher park-adjusted slugging percentage.

The Bethel team ERA is 3.74, compared to Juneau's 3.62. However, Juneau actually gave up 36 more homers than Bethel, and with park adjustments that difference is even larger. Bethel pitchers walked 439 and struck out 576, compared to 339 and 590 for Juneau. Bethel's BABIP was 11 points higher than Juneau's (.282 versus .271). Park differences account for a little bit of that difference, but most of it must be due to defense.

Bethel fielders made by far the fewest errors of any team, however: just 86 compared to Juneau's 132. By the same token, their pitchers also gave up the fewest unearned runs in the league. Despite a better ERA, Juneau pitchers actually allowed 25 more runs than Bethel (477 versus 452).

Based on team stats, Bethel seems to have the edge, but those stats are misleading because Juneau had to deal with significant injuries to Dunsmore and Collette during the year. They are healthy now, so this team is as good now as they've ever been this year.

Lineup Comparisons

C - Alex Holman (.251/.344/.368) (BET) vs. Bob Russo (.245/.309/.363) (JUN) - SENATORS+ because Russo's arm is far better than Holman's and Russo is usually much better (.850 OPS last year)
1B - Adam Joly (.351/.451/.577) (BET) vs. Gates Matkin (.310/.358/.370) (JUN) - MUSHERS++ (Joly led the league in VORP with over 60!)
2B - Duncan Sutherland (.255/.342/.408) (BET) vs. Ralph Collette (.278/.372/.510) (JUN) - SENATORS+
3B - Ed Mansel (.261/.330/.350) (BET) vs. Henry Willerton (.243/.338/.407) (JUN) - SENATORS+
SS - Bob O'Donnell (.165/.216/.258) (BET) vs. Bill Seguin (.263/.301/.355) (JUN) - SENATORS++ (Seguin is also a formidable base stealer, though O'Donnell has the edge in defense)
LF - Mark O'Feeney (.259/.308/.388) (BET) vs. Wynn Dunsmore (.335/.429/.647) (JUN) - SENATORS++
CF - George Henneberry (.249/.356/.389) (BET) vs. Olivier Theriault (.253/.340/.392) (JUN) - EVEN (Henneberry is an extremely quick & accurate base stealer but is mediocre defensively)
RF - Sean Heath (.280/.369/.461) (BET) vs. Bob Crawford (.290/.389/.437) (JUN) - MUSHERS+ (Heath had a 1.012 OPS last year, Crawford was playing his first full year this year)

Overall: Advantage to the Senators. However, both of these teams are really underrated offensively and can score in bunches.

Starting Rotation Comparisons

1. Dave Gould (123 IP, 9 HR, 57 BB, 96 K) (BET) vs. Don Taggart (154 IP, 8 HR, 49 BB, 141 K) (JUN) - SENATORS++
2. Leif Morris (161, 9, 74, 94) (BET) vs. Quinn Spence (152, 22, 49, 42) (JUN) - MUSHERS++
3. Jack Hatt (164, 15, 49, 85) (BET) vs. Scott Northeast (170, 18, 30, 92) (JUN) - SENATORS+

The Mushers and Senators both faced problems with pitching sequence. Hatt is the Mushers' #1 starter but pitched on the last day of the season to get them into the playoffs. Northeast is the Senators' #2 starter but did the same. So they will have to wait until game 3.

If #4 starters are needed due to injury, Dave Gibbon (153, 3, 72, 79) would go for Bethel and Anthony Sonier (90, 11, 34, 57) for Juneau. Assuming they are not brought in, the Senators probably have a slight advantage in the rotation.

Bench Comparisons

Gabe Berry started in the outfield for the Mushers most of the year but will not start, at least at first, in the playoffs. He hit .283/.343/.453 this year and can really add pop off the bench. Thirty-five-year-old backup catcher Pat Upton is a career .243/.326/.462 hitter with excellent home run power. Kelyn Birley, a former star in this league who has struggled of late, could come off the bench as a pinch-runner.

Juneau's starting first baseman for most of the year was Greg Perkins, but he never performed as expected (.212/.318/.350 after .283/.359/.411 last year). He's still likely to pinch-hit when a lefthanded bat is needed. Dirk Cluett platooned in right field most of the year but is riding pine now after hitting just .296/.317/.311 this year. This is the guy who hit .387-.376-.376 in his first three seasons with Fairbanks. Twenty-year-old Alex-Antoine Ouellet is an incredibly fast and skilled base stealer and could pinch-run in a key late-game situation.

Overall: Advantage Mushers.

Bullpen

The Senators have one of the most experienced closers in the league, Bill Colwill, who bounced back this year to save 20 games in 24 opportunities, allowing just 3 HR (after 11 last year) in 43 IP. Setup relievers include Stephane Landry (46, 4, 21, 36) and former Bethel closer Loren Coleman (45, 5, 17, 42). Solid all around.

For closing duties, Bethel relies on the relatively unknown James Marshall, who had a decent year (45, 6, 18, 41). Their setup relievers are Austin Oakley (37, 2, 25, 16) and Carl Baldwin (41, 1, 16, 44). All three of their top relievers are lefties. It's really unclear why the manager puts such faith in the shaky Oakley. Baldwin could be a star in the making, with a fastball topping out around 93 (a rare sight in this league).

Advantage: Senators.

Managing Comparisons

Kevin Aubry is the first-year manager for Bethel. This is only his second year managing, after he was fired from Kodiak mid-season last year. He tends to be pretty aggressive with small ball and has been accused of over-managing his pitchers as well.

Iemitsu Kiyomizu, from Fukuoka, Japan, was hired by the Senators this year out of the Gulf Coast League. He has now five years of minor and independent league managing experience but is still just 39. The knock on him is that he can't control his players. His managing style tends to be typically Japanese, with a focus on the fundamentals and a rather "traditional" outlook on the game.

Overall: Hard to say, both are Manager of the Year contenders for their teams' surprising success. Probably a slight advantage to the Mushers here.

Prediction

The Senators' players have more experience as a whole, with leaders like Bill Colwill making the team gel a little better. The Mushers are still mostly a gaggle of no-names and inexperienced players. Intangibles might make the difference with teams so evenly matched. Senators will also have home field advantage, so on those grounds I will pick Juneau to defeat Bethel again, in 7 games.