|
Suggestion
Additional League Totals Modifer categories.
The data to calculate these modifiers are already in the era_stats.txt file
1. Double Play League Totals Modifier
This modifier, like the modifiers for the DIPS totals, will keep Double Plays per Game on a historically accurate rate from year to year. At the end of a season, we take the League Expected Double Plays Turned per Team Game next season and divide it by the simulated Double Play totals per Team Game of this season. Multiply the current DP modifier total by this result to get the DP modifier for next season.
(NDPg/SDPg) * Current Modifier = New Double Plays Modifier
NDPg = Next year’s Double Plays per Team Game
SDPg = This year’s simulated Double Plays per Team Game
2. Groundball Percentage League Totals Modifier
OOTP is based upon a 55% GB:FB ratio in terms of outs recorded. We can create a modifier that keeps the league at this constant level, or if historical data can be generated, the GB% of a given season in history. This modifier essentially corrects for any slight imperfection there may be in player fielding ratings relative to one another and corrects for the quality of defensive players in the league.
3. OF Assist Modifier
In earlier days of baseball OF Assists were far more common than they are today. We have OF Assists per Team Game data, so it should be possible to influence the frequency of OF Assist plays in the simulation. Note, the data in the fielding-ref file is 1/3 OF Assists per Team Game since there are 3 OF positions and the file is used for creating fielding ratings. OOTP will need to tally up all of the OF Assist in the league at the end of a season, then divide by 3, then divide by Team Games and compare it to next year’s expected ratio.
4. Stolen Base Attempt League Totals Modifier
We have the data for Stolen Base Attempts per Team Game for 1871-present in the era_stats file. To calculate the modifier take next year’s League SBA per Team Game divided by this season’s simulated SBA per Team Game, then multiply the result by the modifier currently in place. Stolen Base Attempts are SB +CS.
(NSBAg/SSBAg) * Current Modifier = New SBA Modifier for next season.
NSBAg = Next season’s Stolen Base Attempts per Team Game
SSBAg = This Season’s simulated Stolen Base Attempts per Team Game
5. Stolen Base Success Modifier
Different periods of baseball had different success rates of stealing bases. This modifier would essentially affect player Stealing Ability ratings.
(HSP/SSP) * Current Modifier = Stealing Ability Stolen Base Success Modifier
HSP = Next year's Historical Stolen Base Success Percentage
SSP = This season's Simulated Stolen Base Success Percentage
6. Sacrifice Hits League Totals Modifier
This is a minor issue, but we could probably get more realistic Sacrifice totals with a league totals modifier here too. If we do this, it will also eliminate the need to adjust the Bunting strategy setting after initial import in historical simulations.
I'm guessing that a player's SAC rating is based on either Sacrifices per AB or per Plate Appearance. If so, then we can create a modifier to do the rest of the work. Like with the other ratings, this would affect how OOTP "sees" a player's SAC rating. The modifier should be able to increase or decrease how often Sacrifices are made then to match historical ratios.
In the era_stats.txt file there is a field labeled SAC/AB which is league Sacrifices per AB for all seasons 1871-2006.
(HS/SS) * Current Modifier = Sacrifice Hits League Totals Modifier
HS = Next year's Historical Sacrifices per AB ratio
SS = This season's simulated Sacrifices per AB ratio
Reason
The addition of these new league totals modifiers coupled with the new formulas for the speed and defensive ratings should give us historicaly accurate SB's, SB%, Double Plays, and OF Assists. This will have a significant positive impact on producing more realistic histoical league E.R.A. as well.
Priority
High (MUST have)
__________________
Arod23Garlon2006DB available HERE
1871 Quickstart file available HERE
|