[Garlon]

Suggestion
Improved Formula for 2B and 3B in League Totals Modifiers.
The current formula compares next year’s expected ratio of 2B per AB to this season’s simulated ratio of 2B per AB. The same goes for 3B. The formula works well, but we can make it more accurate.

Instead of using per AB for the calculation, we should be using per hit.

The formula should be:
(N2Bh)/(S2Bh) * Current Modifier

N2Bh = Next Year’s Expected 2B/H
S2Bh = Simulated 2B/H

The formula would be the same for triples.

We might even want to go with 2B/(H – HR). I think we should try tests with per Hit first though.


Reason
Right now when the historical league expected BA increases from season to season, the historical ratio of 2B per AB also increases, while the ratio of 2B per Hit remains the same. Right now I believe the LTM's inadvertently may be giving doubles and triples extra boosts or reductions during such instances. If the modifiers for doubles and triples are calculated on a per Hit basis, then doubles and triples should track better as league BA changes. End result will be better historical accuracy.

Priority
High (MUST have)