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Old 10-29-2007, 02:23 AM   #1 (permalink)
darkcloud4579
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Join Date: Jun 2003
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Dark Cloud's Financial Market Model Version 1.0

This is an issue that I've thought about for a long time, but it wasn't until RonCo pointed out the financial model for the FOBL on a different thread that got me thinking about this in an entirely different manner, so I'm grateful for that. I do use some elements of the structure of their formula to get this started, but my formula goes in a completely different direction and is geared towards the solo player trying to simulate a financial world that has some basis in real life.

What I've devised here, is a market model that rewards big markets for being in big markets. And it's not to say that great to good teams in smaller markets aren't rewarded here, as much as, they're hurt more if they don't have an owner with deep pockets AND fail to win over the course of time. And it's not wholly about celebrating big markets, since my particular example here is for a league I've just started and almost intentionally skews towards equitable revenue sharing and the model can easily be tweaked to accommodate whatever you're trying to do.

I'll explain with more detail later what the variables of the 'sheet are, but I felt like it might be a helpful tool for those of us out there who are solo players who focus -- probably too much, if you're me -- on the financial and market-based aspects of the game.

In all of my years of playing, I haven't seen a model that I've concocted outside of my brain that would better simulate a lot of what I'm trying to capture in my leagues, especially related to whether a team moves or stays where it is.

This model accounts for a deep pocketed owner, attempts to create a salary floor by essentially MAKING teams spending some of their available income by discounting the average payroll number from that total and gives rewards to teams who are over .500, as well as other cash bonuses for playoff appearances and ticket increases (and access to higher paying ticket consumers) as the team wins, as well as factoring local media money and providing each team with a share of national media money.

Like I said, I can break down the details later -- provided anyone gets interested -- but, I just wanted to put it out here because I've spent all day with it and I'm kinda excited about it, but it's late and it's way time for bed.

Questions and Comments are welcomed..though I'll have more context once I explain some of the assumptions I've included in this.
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Last edited by darkcloud4579 : 10-29-2007 at 03:23 PM.
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