Quote:
Originally Posted by Jason Moyer
Yeah, but if you're the type of person who thinks steroids were responsible for offensive production increasing, chances are you wouldn't think of that.
Really I don't think stats show a hell of a lot in regards to Steroid users. Especially if Clemens didn't start doping until he joined the Yankees and went from having his best seasons to being completely mediocre.
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I think you have to consider eras, age, and the extent of change. As Skip said, we don't really have a model for it, but with all the new info in the Mitchell report, we may be able to develop one. Without that model, you can still take an empirically-grounded approach, even if your frames of reference are blurry. There's a difference between a 35 year-old guy performing at a level below but in the same neighborhood as his peak and a guy who reaches a whole new level after 35, for example.
FWIW, McGriff's OPS+ in each of his 38, 39, and 40 year old seasons was below his career average, and his post-30 years as a whole were
much worse than his pre-30 years. He hit homers at a higher rate in the down offensive years of the late 80's and early 90's when he was a twenty-something than he did in the live-ball era after that. All things considered, his career followed a very appropriate curve relative to his aging and the era.