[Elendil]

The Nicks had better start putting together a better amateur system, and quickly, before they waste the careers of stars like Abston, Major, and Randell. The fans are getting restless.

Major Gains
[*] 1B Phil Alder, 26, played a little bit last year but will get his first chance as full-time starter this year. He hit .326/.443/.511 last year with 190 AB's.
[*] LF John Horswill, 36, signed a one-year deal for $21,300. His career stats are above, under Mat-Su. Not expected to be much better than replacement level, but at this position that still means a good hitter.
[*] In a more significant move, the Nicks signed CF Phil Livingston, 28, away from Peninsula on a three-year contract worth approximately $51K per year. Livingston's career line is .299/.348/.402, he has stolen 138 bases, and he has won a Glove Wizard Award.
[*] The Nicks signed 28-year-old outfielder Dennis Bandelow to a league-minimum contract. Bandelow had been playing in A ball for a while, where he didn't really perform as expected, and was eventually let go. He returns to Alaska after having been a Yukoner prospect several years ago. He hit surprisingly well in training camp and will start in right for the Nicks to open the season.

Major Losses
[*] Aging corner infielder Edison Dwyer (career .254/.331/.480, now 34 years old) was signed away by Chugiak on a 1-year, $16.3K deal. He will be a backup in Chugiak, but had been North Pole's starting first baseman for three straight years - and before that, a key element of their championship teams as a third baseman (he spent 2009-2017 with the club).

2018 Forecast

The Nicks' rebuilding process is taking an agonizingly long time. They still have a superstar second baseman in John Abston, and Chance Major is still going strong in the rotation, though not quite what he used to be. Overall, though, the pitching staff is very bad, and this looks to be another year in the Denali Division cellar. Prediction: 5th in the Denali.



The Oilers have quietly put some pieces back together to try to contend again. They won the division back in '15 and then muddled through two sub-.500 seasons, but they look to come back strong this year.

Major Gains
[*] Twenty-three-year-old rookie first baseman Stan Marion will be joining the team this year. Marion has hit pretty well in the Training League. He won't be a star but should contribute.
[*] Twenty-two-year-old center fielder Roy Groves will get his first chance to start this year with the departure of Livingston. He's a speedy, pretty rangey guy who chokes up and dinks singles. Time will tell if he can develop into a better offensive force, but for now he fills a hole.
[*] Twenty-nine-year-old right fielder Keith Willerton joins the team as a free agent, signing a two-year contract worth $22,928 per year. Willerton has bounced around the league, posting a respectable but not outstanding career line of .289/.348/.417. He should still be in his prime, or close to it. Loss for Juneau.

Major Losses
[*] Right fielder Elvis O'Halloran is signed away by Fairbanks to a 1-year contract worth $16.6K. He will be a backup there but had started for Peninsula. He's now 36 and clearly in decline, but hit .238/.352/.452 last year - not too shabby.
[*] Phil Livingston.

2018 Forecast

With C Bob Russo, 2B Zander Sabin, SS Ken Swerdlow, and LF Phil Elliott in the lineup, and a rotation featuring Harvey Romanov, Ryan Dye, and Louis Mays, they should be a solid opponent and could well finish over .500 this year. Prediction: 3rd in the Seward.



The Sentinels are a puzzle. They simply refuse to go into a full rebuild despite all indications that they cannot keep up with Fairbanks and Juneau. Will this be the year they finally crash and burn completely?

Major Gains
[*] Infielder Luther Hemphill, 27, comes over from Kodiak on a 2-year contract worth just $12.8K per year. It's a solid deal for a player who hit .324/.385/.534 in 2016, his only full season in the AKL. A fractured foot kept him out of action all of last year. He is slated to start at second for Sitka.
[*] Rookie third baseman Bret Turner, 21, will get his first taste of professional action. He had been acquired in a trade with Bethel for SP Shane Kodo last year. He can hit line drives to all parts of the field, and the Sentinels are quite bullish about his future.

Major Losses
[*] Starting pitcher Bryan Kendall retires. Kendall was one of the most consistent pitchers in league history, posting an ERA under 4.00 every year from 2008 to 2016 and throwing at least 140 innings each of those seasons. His final career numbers: 103-96, 3.73 ERA, 1776 IP, 168 HRA, 684 BB, 1574 SO. He was an 8-time All-Star. Even in his last year, he was one of Sitka's three best pitchers.
[*] Midseason rental second baseman Chris Webb moves on, signing a 1-year deal with Juneau. Webb hit well in his half-year with Sitka (.297/.345/.426 for all of 2017). It's a somewhat pathetic finale to a bad trade that sent solid young pitcher Russell Carriere to the Bucs for a rental player for whom Sitka had no use. Webb will be a backup with Juneau.
[*] Right fielder Bill O'Farrell moves on to Chugiak. Details above.

2018 Forecast

This team has clearly gotten worse since last year, but it will be interesting to see how their youngsters do. They still have superstars in the lineup: SS Jack "Hustle" Hussey and LF Phil Botfield. Their pitching ace is definitely Dwayne Smith, who posted a 2.96 ERA last year. Prediction: 4th in the Denali.



The Yukoners made fistfuls of money last year by slashing payroll and staff. It didn't help their winning percentage but it did assure fiscal solvency for the near future. They also have, by far, the #1 minor league system in the league.

Major Gains
[*] Twenty-four-year-old rookie first baseman Waylon Sutton, acquired in a trade with North Pole last year, will get a chance at the "bigs." He's not much of a fielder, but he has developed one skill: hitting home runs. He clubbed 24 of them in 241 at-bats last year with the Skagway amateur club.
[*] Infielder Mark Miller, 21, was claimed off waivers from Fairbanks in the offseason and could play with Whitehorse out of training camp, which would be his first Alaskan League action. He's a subpar fielder but has some smarts and is well liked by teammates. Hit .328 with the Amateur Goldpanners last year.
[*] 3B Stan Smart comes over from Kodiak in a blockbuster trade that sends 1B-2B Mike Melton, 3B A.J. Brisebois, and RP Calvin Turley the other way, and also brings in SP prospect Michael Matthews. Smart will make $18,561 for 1 year, which should be a steal if he repeats his 2015-2017 numbers (career .268/.355/.468 line). However, the Yukoners probably want to re-sign him, and it's doubtful whether he would consent to that unless the team improves substantially. Whitehorse is considered a baseball backwater in league circles, where players can toil in obscurity for years without recognition or proper compensation.
[*] In one of two major signings for the Yukoners, Lower 48 minor league standout Fred MacGregor, a 24-year-old corner outfielder and native Canadian, comes to Whitehorse. MacGregor hit .279/.362/.448 with Frisco, the Rangers' AA club. Since the AKL is about on a par with low-level A ball, those are some impressive numbers. He became a minor league free agent and headed up to the Yukon Territory to play some pro ball, make a little cash, and perhaps impress an MLB or CLB club. He will make $24K on a 1-year contract.
[*] The Yukoners also signed back CF John Dugles, who had spent a year in Fairbanks after playing for Ketchikan-Whitehorse his entire career up to that point. Dugles is still just 29 but suffered some injury problems last year. His career line is .284/.344/.419. He will make $27,645 on a 1-year contract.
[*] Rookie starting pitchers Ron Gunter, Pearce Holman, and Tony Gibbon could get a shot this year. Gunter and Gibbon are supposed to have great potential. Holman is now 29 and comes out of the Glacier Pilots' organization. He was 2015 Alaska Training League Pitcher of the Year but never got a shot with the parent club.

Major Losses
[*] OF Keith MacNeill, who was embroiled in that race controversy with Juneau a few years back, lets bygones be bygones and signs with the Senators! Of course, his antagonist, Cisco Pena, has since moved on to the Bucs. MacNeill is now 33, is terrible in the field, and hit below replacement level last year, so he's probably not a "major" loss, but some observers think he could return to previous glory.
[*] Infielder Mike Melton, third baseman A.J. Brisebois, reliever Calvin Turley (see under Kodiak for analysis).

2018 Forecast

Whitehorse had more turnover of various kinds, coming out of training camp, than any other club, and therefore they are hardest to predict. They don't really have many stars, but they don't have too many gaping holes either, other than catcher and the back end of the rotation. They could finish anywhere from second to last. Prediction: 3rd in the Denali.

Looking Ahead

An Anchorage Daily News piece recently provided evidence that winning clubs can be forecast on average two years in advance by dividing their winning percentage by payroll in any year. For instance, excluding the receivership year, the Glacier Pilots peaked in winning percentage per dollar in 2012, and in 2014 they won the championship. Chugiak's peak came in 2010, and they won the division with a .657 winning percentage in 2012. Juneau led the league in "win efficiency" in 2007 and won the championship in 2009. Fairbanks hit their peak in 2015, and of course success came a little more quickly (but lasted longer): they were champions the next two years. (Fairbanks also led the league in the statistic in 2013 and 2014!) Two years before Peninsula's 2010 championship, they led the league in win efficiency. It's almost uncanny how it works.

So who led the league in "win efficiency" in 2016 and 2017? In 2016 it was Kodiak by a decent margin over Sitka and Fairbanks, and in 2017 it was Whitehorse by an immense margin over Bethel and then North Pole. Going by history, then, Kodiak could win it all this year, and Whitehorse in 2019. We'll see!