GIULIANI ANNOINTED GOP FRONTRUNNER
Dodd inches forward in race for Democratic Delegates
In order to help regular RtWH2008 visitors make sense of the election narrative as it develops, the powers that be have established the RtWH2008 Report, an exclusive feature that will appear periodically in this thread. The report will help make sense of the numbers, and give readers a sense of what is transpiring behind the scenes throughout the election season.
In this, the first installment of the RtWH2008 Report, we have assembled four of the country's leading analysts from across the political spectrum to dissect last night's Iowa results and give readers a sense of what lies ahead in New Hampshire and beyond.
This Week's Experts:
Alicia Sappho - Newsmonth
Howard Blovius - NY Star
Deke Whirlington - Crampon.com
Larry Rankor - Back Alley Journal
Whirlington: Well, we're off to the races folks, and it looks like the polls were pretty much on track with the Iowa results. Giuliani, who was the frontrunner in the leadup to Iowa, kindda ran away with it.
Rankor: I think you can call the GOP race over.
Sappho: Oh c'mon Larry. One state down and already you are calling for a coronation?
Rankor: Well it seemed pretty clear to me that Giuliani is the guy.
Whirlington: No question Giuliani is the GOP frontrunner, but Alicia is right. Way too early to call.
Rankor: Okay, then who do you propose can beat the NY mayor? Ron Paul's campaign was very active in Iowa, yet he ended up a distant second. Who's left? Alan Keyes? C'mon.
Blovius: Fred Thompson barely campaigned in Iowa, yet finished a pretty strong fourth considering his lack of TV time. I hear his campaign has targeted New Hampshire, and I gotta think he has a chance to make inroads there.
Sappho: Thompson, McCain... and I don't think you can yet discount Paul or Keyes in this race.
Whirlington: No one is talking about Mike Huckabee, the Governor from Arkansas. While the results were admittedly uneven, Huckabee delivered some big knockout punches in certain districts throughout Iowa.
Rankor: Huckabee is dangerous, but his support is pretty narrow. I think Huckabee is more a spoiler than a serious threat to Giuliani.
Whirlington: He beat him head to head in some of the rural areas.
Rankor: It seems clear that Huckabee's endorsement will mean something down the road, as he brings a significant fringe element to the eventual nominee. But his lack of consistent support has to worry the campaign.
Blovius: They can't possibly be surprised by it tho. Polls indicated a spotty support base.
Whirlington: But do we all agree that Giuliani is the clear frontrunner going into New Hampshire?
Rankor: Definitively.
Sappho: Yes...for now.
Blovius: He looks strong.
Whirlington: Okay, turning to the Democratic race...
Sappho: Now this one could go any direction.
Blovius: Frankly, I'm surprised that a couple of the candidates with significant party support have yet to gain traction with the voters. Specifically Hillary Clinton, who is rated among the highest of this year's candidates. The campaign has to be very concerned over Iowa results.
Rankor: She didn't carry a single precinct. I agree. Very surprising.
Blovius: Clinton has to hope for at least a "show" in New Hampshire, or the tents will be folded early.
Sappho: I don't think we can discount a surge for Clinton. I hear rumblings of pretty strong grass roots support in New Hampshire.
Whirlington: If I were to have predicted the early Democratic frontrunners at this point last year, I would have probably tapped Obama, Clinton and Richardson. Yet none of them are dominant at this point. Why?
Blovius: I think you can point to a very strong Democratic field. It seems voters are having difficulty sorting things out. With the exception of Biden and Kucinich, I think just about any candidate could win this thing.
Whirlington: So it's much too early for Dodd to celebrate is what you are saying.
Blovius: The Dodd HQ has to be really happy with the Iowa returns, but yeah, there's a long way to go.
Rankor: New Hampshire will be really interesting. I could see Obama gaining momentum there.
Sappho: Don't be surprised to see Clinton rise from the dead. She may not own a true knockout punch, but she is as tactically able as any of the candidates in the field.
Whirlington: Okay, wrapping things up, who do you see coming out of Iowa with the lead on the Democratic side?
Rankor: I'm going to say Obama, with Dodd and Edwards on his heels.
Blovius: I think Richardson makes some inroads. I'll go Dodd, Edwards, Richardson.
Sappho: Obama definitely has the potential to jump ahead. I'm going to echo Larry's prediction: Obama, Dodd, Edwards.
Whirlington: I'm going to pick Dodd to continue his winning streak. I agree with Howard that Richardson is poised to pick up steam, and see him in a three horse race with Edwards and Obama coming out of the Granite State.