GIULIANI RUNNING AWAY WITH GOP RACE
Democratic picture remains muddy
With Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire and Michigan in the books, the experts revisit the RtWH2008 narrative to recap the results thus far and discuss the challenges for Democratic and Republican candidates going into Nevada, South Carolina, Florida, and Super-Duper Tuesday.
This Week's Experts:
Alicia Sappho - Newsmonth
Deke Whirlington - Crampon.com
Larry Rankor - Back Alley Journal
Gladys Palaver - NY Star (Howard Blovius is on vacation)
Whirlington: Okay, so Larry, get it out of your system. I know you've been waiting to say...
Rankor: I told you so.
[Laughter]
Rankor: The train has left the station, and Giuliani is the only passenger.
Palaver: He's driving it, more like.
Whirlington: So is there any way that the mayor does NOT get the nomination?
Rankor: Maybe if he gets hit by a train. That's about the only way.
Sappho: Now, I know. He's the prohibitive favorite. But it's still an open contest. If Alan Keyes can gain some traction, he may yet make a run for it.
Palaver: At this point, it's a one man race with Keyes the only one who doesn't know it yet.
Whirlington: Romney definitely knows it. He bowed out earlier this week.
Rankor: Romney was dead last in every contest but Michigan. After betting it all on Michigan, the man couldn't even inch out Fred Thompson for third.
Whirlington: So are we about to see more dominoes fall?
Sappho: Each of the remaining candidates except Huckabee has pulled at least 3rd in one of the primaries. I think they ride on, at least through Super Tuesday.
Rankor: Super DUPER Tuesday. Yeah, I agree with Alicia. They'll limp along until that point, then I see at most 4 left, most likely 3 and maybe even 2, depending on what happens.
Whirlington: Money has to be a concern in several camps.
Rankor: Yep. Giuliani is of course flush. And Keyes, after finishing 1st in Wyoming then second every where else but Iowa, is strong. After that, it's pretty thin. Ron Paul had that nice 2nd place finish in Iowa, but has done nothing since. Thompson has polled moderately well, but has not been able to do better than 3rd. McCain had a weak 3rd somewhere, was it Wyoming? And has bombed everywhere else. And Huckabee - God only knows why he remains in.
Palaver: Florida, is of course, huge. If Keyes, or even Thompson or Paul, can take Florida, the "race" becomes a race again.
Sappho: And of course, Super...DUPER Tuesday.
Rankor: My prediction? Our next roundtable, we're discussing who Giuliani will choose to be a running mate, because, for all intents and purposes, the primary election will be all sewed up.
Whirlington: So, turning to the Democrats....
Rankor: What a mess.
Sappho: It's wide open prairie on the left. The eventual winner is anyone's guess.
Whirlington: Anyone looking any better than anyone else?
Palaver: I think the emergence of Dodd has to be filed under the heading "unexpected."
Rankor: That "Richardson" call by Howard was bordering on the prophetic. I'm surprised he didn't cut his vacation short to come in and crow.
[Laughter]
Whirlington: Last time we talked about the Clinton campaign. While she improved markedly in New Hampshire, is it enough to carry her to Super Tuesday?
Sappho: I think so. She'll have to be prudent - probably concede Nevada - but I think she will make it. Whether or not she'll do well there is hard to know. I'd assumed the Clinton campaign would be in much better shape at this stage of the contest.
Whirlington: So who's in trouble? No question Biden and Kucinich...
Rankor: They are both gone. No one has bothered to tell them yet.
Palaver: Gotta wonder what they're thinking over at Obama HQ. After finishing 3rd in Iowa, they were nowhere to be seen in New Hampshire.
Sappho: They are no doubt concerned. I think they expected a win in Iowa and no worse than a Show in New Hampshire.
Whirlington: So what happens next? Who's looking good in Nevada and South Carolina?
Rankor: Dodd seems to be gaining traction. If he can edge out at least one more victory before the big Tuesday primaries, he'll be in a nice position to really take off.
Sappho: Richardson has the big "mo" going into Nevada. If I were to throw a prediction out there, I'd go Richardson, Dodd, Obama in Nevada and Obama, Richardson and maybe Edwards in South Carolina.
Palaver: I'm going to predict a Dodd victory in Nevada, and Obama in South Carolina. I think Hillary takes 2nd in one of those contests.
Rankor: Well if she does, it will have to be South Carolina, since she's not campaigning in Nevada. I like Dodd in Nevada, and I'm going to go out on a limb and say Edwards gets his campaign back on track with a win in South Carolina.
Whirlington: No one mentions Gravel, who took 3rd in New Hampshire.
Rankor: Fluke.
Palaver: Yeah, unlikely to repeat itself.
Whirlington: Okay, so my prediction - Richardson in Nevada, Obama in South Carolina. Dodd takes 2nd in both states, and the 3 go into Super Duper Tuesday in a virtual 3-way deadlock.
Rankor: And Biden and Kucinich go home.