Quote:
Originally Posted by RonCo
Minor league stats are very useful if you understand their context--consider performance against league average rather than performance based on number you're used to. A 3.30 ERA is not so good if the league ERA is 2.85, for example. Of course, ERA is not so good for the projections. The important things to pay attention to are the DIPs stats--K/PA, BB/PA, HR/PA...k/bb ratio, etc. It's difficult for bullpen guys since their sample size is very small.
Pay attention to BABIP. An OOTP pitcher has a little more control over BABIP than a real pitcher, but not much. A guy with a high BABIP is being a bit unlucky and may be considered likely to do better in the future. a guy with a low BABIP against may be thought to have been lucky (or just played behind a great defense).
Sample size is important, of course. Most humans don't understand how wide of a variance a player can really have by pure random chance alone.
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<--- SaberDork. But thanks for the tips!
*Edit: Calling myself a SaberDork, not you. :-D