[ctorg]

Here's my main thing:

I think hitters are pretty well modeled in the majors (I admit that I don't pay a whole lot of attention to the minors), but pitchers do not produce realistic numbers. They are way too consistent and there are far too many who pitch every five days. There needs to be wider variation from performance to performance and there needs to be a higher rate of very short term and day-to-day minor injuries for pitchers.

Regarding "potential", I don't think you can view it as a literal potential. Or maybe you can but you have to define it a little differently. Maybe Mike Piazza didn't have the potential to become a star, but he made some changes to his approach that increased his potential. There are lots of guys in the minors who make changes to their batting styles or add a pitch and suddenly break out. I think changes in potential are a great way to reflect that.