Quote:
Originally Posted by Who Killed Kenny?
Let's think about this mathematically:
****Warning MATH Below!!****
Value of pre-ordering: $25
Value of not pre-ordering: $40
Value of enjoying the game: $E
Value of not enjoying the game: $0
Probability of enjoying the game: 1/2. Lets say theres a 50-50 chance that you'll like the next version.
Expected value = (Value of A)*(Prob of A happening) + (Value of B) * (Prob of B happening)
The Expected Value of pre-order is:
= Value of enjoying the pre-order times 1/2 + Value of not enjoying the pre-order times 1/2
= (E - 25)*(1/2) + (0 - 25)*(1/2)
= (E / 2) - (25 / 2) - (25 / 2)
= (E / 2) - 25
The Expected Value of waiting is a little different since you get to view the demo. Let's say that you will NOT get the game if you do not like the demo. Therefore there is close to 100% chance you'll like the game. The expected value is:
= (E - 40)*(1) + (0 - 40)*(0)
= E - 40
The actual difference in price is $15 so in order for pre-ordering to make sense the difference in the Expected Values should be greater that $15.
So what is the difference in Expected Value of Waiting versus Expected Value of Pre-ordering?
15 <= (E - 40) - ((E / 2) - 25)
15 <= E - 40 - (E / 2) + 25
15 <= (E / 2) - 15
Now we solve for E to find the minimum amount of enjoyment you'll need to make pre-order feasible.
15 <= (E / 2) - 15
30 <= E / 2
60 <= E
Therefore, if you think that you'll get at least $60 worth out of the game based on a 50-50 chance that'll you enjoy it, pre-ordering is the best option.
QED.
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I'm not sure, but I think you're telling me to buy two at the regular price to insure myself of a 120% chance of enjoying the game?
Guess I could buy three at the discounted price to get a bit better odds.
**runs off to buy three copies at the discounted rate**