The San Diego Padres (90-73)
VS.
The Pittsburgh Pirates (100-62)
Quick Facts:
-This is the third rematch from last season's divisional round. San Diego upset Pittsburgh last season in a seven game series.
-This is the Padres' third straight postseason appearance. They reached the World Series last year, but lost in six games to Miami. Their last World Series victory was in 2073.
-This is the Pirates fifth straight division title and sixth straight postseason appearance. The Pirates won back to back World Series in 2080 and 2081.
-San Diego won 10 out of 15 games against Pittsburgh this season. The average score was 5.9 to 4.7
-The Padres ranked only 14th in runs scored, which is the lowest total of any of the playoff teams. It is somewhat surprising that they rank so low, because they ranked 8th in on base percentage, 10th in homeruns, and 6th in walks. San Diego also led all of baseball in stolen bases, and were the only team to eclipse 200 in that category. Making up for their ordinary offense was an excellent pitching staff. San Diego allowed the third fewest runs and had the 2nd best ERA. They gave up the second fewest homeruns and walked the fourth fewest batters.
-Pittsburgh finished with the third most runs scored in baseball. Driving the Pirates' offense was their ability to wear out opposing pitchers. The Pirates ranked first in all of baseball in walks drawn and had the second highest on base percentage. Pittsburgh finished sixth in runs allowed and sixth in ERA. The Pirates allowed the fewest homeruns and the second fewest walks.
-Pittsburgh led all of baseball with 34 1-run victories. The Pirates' 25 1-run losses were the third most, which means that they played in a league-leading 59 1-run games.
-San Diego was only 38-44 at home, but 52-29 on the road, giving the Padres the second best road record in all of baseball. Pittsburgh's 55-26 home record was the second best in baseball.
-Pittsburgh lost its final six games, and 7 of its final 10.
-The last time a one game playoff had to be played to determine who would get a playoff spot was in 2075. San Jose and Los Angeles tied for second in the NL West(San Diego finished first), and the Sharks defeated the Dodgers to advance to the postseason. The Sharks then upset a 102-win Padres team in the first round before getting stomped by the eventual World Series winner, Pittsburgh, in the NLCS in five games.
Batting and pitching stats for San Diego and Pittsburgh:
San Diego batting:
Code:
Name POS G AB H 2B 3B HR RBI R BB K AVG OBP SLG SB CS
G. Matos CF 154 579 163 22 5 39 107 123 92 135 .282 .383 .539 32 14
A. Burdick 2B 158 574 190 21 2 34 110 126 105 84 .331 .438 .552 45 12
G. Canales 1B 157 573 153 19 2 25 90 90 99 57 .267 .378 .438 11 5
A. Chilson 3B 155 565 163 16 4 25 112 74 44 90 .288 .339 .464 16 2
G. Ruiz LF 156 562 158 40 1 37 112 102 67 135 .281 .360 .553 0 0
S. Alvarez C 153 541 139 23 8 21 86 86 74 38 .257 .349 .445 3 4
M. Alarcon SS 143 442 122 35 8 5 55 82 37 84 .276 .334 .425 46 6
C. Prime RF 143 417 131 15 0 18 68 61 38 68 .314 .373 .480 10 0
A. Alemany SS 105 251 70 13 2 2 32 42 23 69 .279 .345 .371 28 10
M. Saldana CF 95 224 51 11 4 2 19 29 21 19 .228 .303 .339 4 0
M. Preciado RF 109 215 53 7 1 2 19 23 17 30 .247 .315 .316 7 6
A. Tester LF 91 158 60 10 2 0 16 16 11 26 .380 .420 .468 1 0
C. Threatt C 91 156 37 11 0 2 19 17 15 12 .237 .302 .346 1 0
C. Lozoya SP 36 102 15 6 1 0 6 6 3 37 .147 .170 .225 1 0
E. Nieves SP 30 82 8 2 0 1 3 4 1 34 .098 .108 .159 0 0
C. Greene SP 35 79 3 2 0 0 2 2 2 41 .038 .062 .063 0 0
D. Spicher SP 28 67 7 1 0 1 4 2 4 30 .104 .155 .164 0 0
C. Crane SP 28 63 11 4 0 1 3 3 3 28 .175 .209 .286 1 0
E. Padilla SP 9 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 .000 .000 .000 0 0
D. Peņa RP 71 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 .000 .000 .000 0 0
W. Martin RP 46 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .000 .000 .000 0 0
L. Ruvalcaba RP 58 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 .000 .250 .000 0 0
A. Geren RP 25 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 0 0
J. Lis RP 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 0 0
L. Salguero RP 43 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1.000 1.000 1.000 0 0
J. Donato RP 36 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 .000 .500 .000 0 0
B. Padilla RP 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 0 0
S. Eye RP 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 .000 .00O .000 0 0
San Diego pitching:
Code:
Name G GS W L SV ERA IP HA R ER BB K CG SH
C. Lozoya 36 36 24 4 0 1.77 265.0 181 57 52 76 222 3 1
C. Greene 35 35 12 11 0 3.55 218.0 246 96 86 23 132 2 0
E. Nieves 30 30 14 9 0 5.00 210.2 232 128 117 63 113 5 0
D. Spicher 28 28 10 9 0 4.10 197.2 231 106 90 26 95 6 1
C. Crane 28 28 8 14 0 6.28 176.1 214 134 123 97 124 4 1
D. Peņa 71 0 4 4 3 2.66 94.2 81 29 28 36 91 0 0
L. Ruvalcaba 58 0 5 8 31 4.61 56.2 62 32 29 8 29 0 0
W. Martin 46 0 3 2 0 5.59 48.1 46 32 30 27 32 0 0
J. Donato 36 0 3 4 0 7.04 46.0 57 36 36 24 35 0 0
L. Salguero 43 0 4 5 1 5.36 45.1 50 28 27 19 33 0 0
E. Padilla 9 6 1 2 1 5.57 32.1 34 23 20 13 18 0 0
S. Rodriguez 31 0 2 0 0 4.45 28.1 29 16 14 21 29 0 0
A. Geren 25 0 0 1 1 10.96 23.0 41 34 28 15 13 0 0
S. Eye 9 0 0 0 0 3.29 13.2 16 5 5 3 13 0 0
J. Lis 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 7.0 4 0 0 1 3 0 0
B. Padilla 2 0 0 0 0 16.20 5.0 12 9 9 1 2 0 0
Pittsburgh batting:
Code:
Name POS G AB H 2B 3B HR RBI R BB K AVG OBP SLG SB CS
J. Rael 3B 153 583 171 30 3 44 158 132 123 50 .293 .417 .581 3 0
J. Harmer Jr. LF 144 572 200 50 7 10 63 132 108 94 .350 .454 .514 2 0
R. Able 2B 150 558 166 27 6 17 90 114 111 132 .297 .412 .459 34 6
A. Quijada C 138 551 169 23 5 22 104 106 90 127 .307 .406 .486 3 0
A. Oatman CF 148 536 153 20 6 22 96 74 47 110 .285 .353 .468 5 2
J. Sequeira RF 136 505 139 19 1 27 111 75 18 24 .275 .301 .477 0 0
D. White SS 142 500 142 19 4 2 57 60 42 109 .284 .342 .350 1 0
J. Arruza 1B 138 430 117 25 0 11 67 55 64 86 .272 .366 .407 4 0
T. Francois RF 122 367 91 25 3 19 72 72 44 62 .248 .328 .488 26 10
R. Triado LF 64 162 49 14 0 4 28 28 11 35 .302 .349 .463 1 0
M. Robinson 3B 59 162 40 13 0 7 30 24 14 23 .247 .309 .457 1 0
R. Chapa C 54 131 32 6 0 0 15 26 30 9 .244 .380 .290 1 0
M. Santos RF 61 114 27 4 0 5 16 17 5 25 .237 .275 .404 3 0
T. Swarthout SS 58 85 17 3 0 0 6 23 20 17 .200 .352 .235 0 0
A. Fajardo SP 34 79 12 3 0 0 3 10 9 33 .152 .236 .190 3 0
D. Malone SP 32 78 19 2 0 0 6 12 8 24 .244 .314 .269 1 0
S. Council SP 26 74 22 2 0 0 7 9 8 30 .297 .361 .324 2 0
J. Marrone SP 28 64 4 3 0 0 5 4 3 27 .063 .104 .109 0 0
G. Otero SP 29 63 10 4 0 0 6 5 3 23 .159 .197 .222 0 0
E. Peņa 3B 22 58 23 7 0 4 23 14 2 11 .397 .417 .724 0 0
F. Medina 1B 22 38 7 1 0 1 7 5 3 7 .184 .238 .289 0 0
H. Yosuke C 5 11 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 5 .182 .231 .182 0 0
N. Garcia SP 5 10 1 0 0 1 1 1 0 5 .100 .100 .400 0 0
M. Ybanez SP 3 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 .000 .000 .000 0 0
J. Odonoghue RP 64 7 1 1 0 0 0 2 2 3 .143 .333 .286 0 0
B. Cousin RF 6 7 3 0 0 1 4 1 0 2 .429 .429 .857 0 0
B. Ringer SP 3 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 .000 .000 .000 0 0
D. Kenzo SP 2 7 2 2 0 0 1 2 0 2 .286 .286 .571 0 0
C. Reardon RP 31 5 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 .000 .000 .000 0 0
S. Garcia 1B 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .250 .250 .250 0 0
M. Tenney RF 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 0 0
E. Westgate SP 2 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .250 .250 .250 0 0
S. Pointer SS 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .000 .000 .000 0 0
J. Vega RP 35 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .000 .000 .000 0 0
S. Gerst 1B 2 3 1 0 0 1 3 1 0 0 .333 .333 1.333 0 0
M. Farner 2B 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 .000 .333 .000 1 0
G. Benny SS 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 0 0
Pittsburgh pitching:
Code:
Name G GS W L SV ERA IP HA R ER BB K CG SH
A. Fajardo 34 34 14 14 0 4.27 225.2 261 120 107 51 156 1 0
D. Malone 31 31 14 5 0 4.02 199.1 173 95 89 60 145 1 1
S. Council 26 26 17 1 0 3.12 190.1 159 73 66 39 163 6 2
J. Marrone 28 28 12 9 0 5.86 176.2 235 127 115 85 122 2 2
G. Otero 29 29 10 10 0 6.45 167.1 225 126 120 84 108 1 0
J. Odonoghue 64 0 18 4 19 2.11 119.1 87 30 28 17 98 0 0
C. Reardon 31 0 1 1 2 2.35 61.1 60 19 16 6 30 0 0
J. Vega 35 0 4 3 2 3.58 60.1 57 24 24 21 48 0 0
R. Chavez 33 0 2 1 1 5.29 51.0 67 34 30 8 34 0 0
R. Melendez 38 0 5 3 11 1.93 46.2 40 14 10 6 37 0 0
B. Hinerman 31 0 0 3 1 7.04 46.0 64 36 36 15 25 0 0
N. Garcia 5 4 2 2 0 5.33 27.0 29 16 16 8 23 0 0
M. Ybanez 3 3 0 1 0 6.86 21.0 32 17 16 4 17 0 0
B. Ringer 3 3 0 2 0 10.42 19.0 31 22 22 8 9 0 0
D. Kenzo 2 2 0 2 0 10.80 15.0 22 19 18 14 12 1 0
E. Westgate 2 2 1 1 0 6.75 12.0 14 9 9 8 5 0 0
F. Rubalcaba 8 0 0 0 0 4.50 10.0 14 8 5 3 8 0 0
K. Nampo 7 0 0 0 0 8.22 7.2 13 7 7 5 1 0 0
D. Martinez 5 0 0 0 0 5.40 5.0 8 3 3 1 3 0 0
M. Garcia 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 3.0 3 0 0 1 2 0 0
Thoughts:
After last season's playoff run, San Diego was expected to be the next dominant National League team. With a powerful offense and a strong rotation led by the emerging
Carlos Lozoya, the Padres were supposed to overtake a San Jose team with a mediocre rotation and an aging Pittsburgh team. Early in the year, it seemed like that's what was happening. While Pittsburgh was still the leader in the Northeast, San Jose was hovering near the bottom of the West and San Diego was sitting at the top. But struggles in June knocked the Padres out of first, and slowly, the Sharks crept back in the race. By the time the month of July was over, the Sharks were back in first, and San Diego was fighting to stay in second place. By the end of the year, San Jose had cruised to another division title, Pittsburgh had outlasted Rochester to win the Northeast, and San Diego was forced to play an extra game just to get into the playoffs. So what happened? Well, that powerful offense from last season slumped considerably. A year ago, the Padres scored the second most runs in baseball, and had an offense that rivaled that of the Denver Broncos. But this year, almost every San Diego starting position player saw his numbers drop off a little bit from last year, and the Padres' offense finished only 14th in the league in runs scored.
Still, coming into this series, the Padres might have been considered favorites by some, except for one thing. Third starter
Delbert Spicher was injured at the end of September and is not expected to be available for this series. While
Spicher is not a star, he is a fairly capable pitcher, and would have allowed the Padres to match up well with the Pirates' starting pitchers. But without
Spicher, San Diego will have to turn to either
Eusebio Nieves or
Christian Crane, which changes the odds in Pittsburgh's favor.
Crane, especially, is a poor matchup against Pittsburgh, as his biggest weakness-walks- is Pittsburgh's biggest offensive strength. Worse, because
Lozoya was the starter in the one game playoff, he isn't likely to pitch until Game Three. This gives Pittsburgh a little bit of an advantage in the respective pitching matchups.
While San Diego saw its offense decline dramatically from last season, the Pirates saw theirs go the other way. Last year, the Pirates were only 12th in runs scored, but this year, they shot up to 3rd. They were the highest scoring team in the National League. Much of this was due to a monster year by third-baseman
Javier Rael, and a breakout year by second-baseman
Robert Able. Outfielder
Tony Francois also improved significantly from last season.
On the pitching side, while last year's Cy Young and ROTY winner,
Andreas Fajardo, had a disappointing season, free agent acquisition
Scott Council was a huge success, and kept the Pirates' rotation decent. Meanwhile, relief ace
Joe O'Donoghue had one of the most terrific seasons by a reliever ever. His 18 wins led the team, and ranked fourth in the entire National League. Pittsburgh balanced an inconsistent rotation with a very good bullpen to give them one of the best pitching staffs in the league.
Prediction: The
Padres in seven games.