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Old 04-28-2008, 08:07 PM   #35 (permalink)
JimboJones
Minors (Double A)
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Posts: 139
Great thread!

I'd like to offer another perspective if I may. Because this is a computer sim, every single thing that happens in the game is a result of some random roll of the dice. This random number, which is in turn fed into a formula, produces some result - a strkeout, homerun, error, etc. There is no such thing as a human having the advantage of being able to use his "intuition". There is simply no such thing when playing against the CPU. These are 0's and 1's were talking about, not living, breathing, feeling humans.

Because the programmer knows the formulas used to determine the results, he also has the ability to program the UI to know exactly how much a players ratings are worth. Theoretically, you can take a players ratings, feed them into a formula, and calculate exactly how many wins that player will likely contribute to a team. Then (since baseball is a business after all) the only thing left is to calculate how much money a win is worth, both present wins and future wins. Each player is in effect given a cash value, which makes evaluating trades and contract negitiations a matter of balancing the two sides. Not the most romantic way to think of things, but remember, its all just 0's and 1's.

Because these types of caluclations are impossibly complex for a human player, even if he had access to the code and knew the formulas, the computer will always be a better player over the long run. Not that it will always be right, due to random events, such as career ending injuries. But over the long term, the computer can and should have the advantage of being able to play the percentages better. A human will get lucky and say he won by having the advantage of human intuition, but its all just a falacy.

Last edited by JimboJones : 04-28-2008 at 08:14 PM.
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