Quote:
Originally Posted by mikev
It's funny, I was just having this exact same type of conversation on another board.
Lots of people who are a lot smarter than me have already crunched numbers, like in this BP article and it proves that there is very little difference between a strikeout and any other out, with regards to producing runs. |
The question isn't if you can be productive while striking out a lot. That's obvious. It's not even whether you team can score a lot of runs while you walk back and forth between the dugout and the plate.
The question is if he's as productive as a similar player that doesn't strike out as often. Could be, could be not.
Another point for Dunn would be that he's yet to play with a team that was anywhere near good. Since his rookie season to now, he's the only Red to get more than 100 RBI... obviously if he doesn't do it it doesn't get done. Could be why he swings for the fences all the time and strikes out so often, the rest of his club sits around waiting for him to do something.
Since, for the most part, the worst offenders at GIDP end up with around 20... and Dunn usually grounds into 8-10 anyhow, I'm not likely to worry too much about more double plays from him. At the same time, his swing and his power would more likely result in fly outs, or if not then they are probably hard hit grounders that may very well end up with 10-15 more DPs per year, but also more line drive hits and grounders that go through for singles.
Beyond that, looking at the worst offenders of GIDP I seriously doubt there was anyone that was saying "Man, I wish he'd strike out more often instead."
Cal Ripken, Hank Aaron, Carl Yaz, Dave Winfield, Eddie Murray, and Jim Rice. Rice with over 30 per season 3 times.
I would rather take my chances and make the defense do their jobs. Before anyone can say it, no I wouldn't want Ryan Howard either.
It's personal preference. Yes you CAN be productive and strike out on average well more than 1 time per game... of course they can, if you had a Juan Pierre striking out 160-200 times a year he'd be in AAA instead. It's could he be more productive if he wasn't spending so often just displacing air... I think so. It's something that can't be studied and proven, his at bat is over... we can't go back and have him make contact instead.