[mrbill]

Originally Posted by Mikecouil

Mark Fydrich
Barry Zito
Dontrelle Willis
and very well could be Johan Santana

Again, Fidrych tore his rotator cuff (and knew it, they just didn't know how to diagnose it), Zito's trail-off has been slow and moderate, Willis has always been wild and inconsistent and Santana is still a #1 with possibly a slight decline.

Maybe it would help if I projected JC's stats for this year. Probably a 4.6 ERA with a 5 VORP over 140 IP. I project him to be in the minors or on a non-contender next year. Basically, he's going to pull a Lima.

None of the named pitchers in this thread have done that without being much older or suffering a pretty substantial injury. Willis is a favorite for people but I just never thought he was consistent with his control. His career K/9 is actually ridiculously consistent, its just his control came and went in the span of about 1.5 seasons. To me, that means he never really had it, he's basically Oliver Perez, who just doesn't have the discipline in his delivery to win over the years.

JCs stats are very consistent and now start the sudden decline with no good explanation, unless you consider the possibility of an undiagnosed injury, which could explain Willis as well. For now, that's the theory I work with, and just hope OOTP can model long-term lingering injuries better in the future.