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Old 06-09-2008, 12:03 AM   #7 (permalink)
swampdragon
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Join Date: May 2002
Location: The Lonely Mountain
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pirates Fan View Post
swampdragon,

I wasn't the original poster, but hopefully he's lurking and will post the data from his league either here or in his original thread. But I hear what you're saying. In the game I'm currently playing (SOM), Roy Face is sucking while lesser relievers are able to shut down rallies. I have written this off to being only 39 games into the season.

However, the original poster's results gave me pause about OOTP. So ...

enuttage,

That was a helpful link, thank you, as well as your experience with the saves in OOTP. I figured most OOTP gamers would have gone ballistic if the relievers were routinely less effective than in real life.

Until we hear from the original poster, then, it seems it's not a big deal.

Or is it?

Geoff
Two last points. First, reliever records more than any others are prone to sample size distortions. Face gives up a three run shot in the 9th inning of the opener to blow a save, and his ERA goes to 27.00. It will take 8 perfect innings to get back to 3.00, and in real life he likely won't get there until June, even if he pitches consistently well. If 8 out of 10 converted saves is OK, and 6.5 out of 10 indicates a problem, you need a huge sample size of save opportunities before you can safely say there's a problem. Second, OOTP has no clutch rating. It doesn't know Lee Smith from Joe Borowski. Accordingly, any ability a pitcher may have to bear down with men on base and get the results he needs is not accounted for beyond raw statistics. There are a number of pitchers that may not be expected to deliver the real-life BABIPs which they exhibited in a particular season. You're likely to be unhappy if you expect a 1.12 ERA out of 1968 Bob Gibson, or 511 wins from Cy Young. DIPs has something to do with pitching unpredictability as well, but I'll let one of the experts on the theory expound on that. I'm likely to get it wrong.
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