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I wonder if the game calculates arbitration based on the salary levels you specify or the amount of money teams have. If teams are willing to give out larger contracts in free agency because they have the cash, then that might be one reason or the big differences in arbitration and free agency contracts.
I think the other reason is that arbitration seems to be based more on rating than stats sometimes. I've never really looked at it, but sometimes it seems that way to me.
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