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pstrickert · 07-01-2008, 09:52 PM

This is how Garlon introduced the Garlon/Spritze DB (which, I believe, is used to create neutralized stats in OOTP9):

Spritze and I started working on a new modified historical DB for OOTP recently. Spritze has done 99% of the work on it and has made (and is still in the process of making) many meticulous edits to provide the best results with OOTP.

The biggest modification we have made with the DB is that it will have park-neutralized player stats. We are using the method described by Bill James in his Historical Abstract to both park-neutralize player stats and convert them to a 750-run environment. If you go to baseball-reference.com you can look up any player and click an option to neutralize stats to a 750-run park-neutral environment. The stats in our DB will essentially be the same as what you would find there since we are using the same conversion technique.

Don't be too concerned with the fact that teams weren't scoring 750-runs per season in the Deadball Era and that this conversion will have a negative impact on simulation results. In fact, just the opposite will happen and we willl see even better results across all eras. OOTP's League Totals Modifiers control the environment and ratios of things like BA and HR per AB, the conversion of the stats in our DB to a higher run-scoring environment just changes player ratings...not the results of the simulation. The important aspect of player ratings in OOTP is how players compare relative to one another, not the absolute value of the ratings. This park-neutral 750-run conversion puts all players on an equal footing for comparison so that players who played for the Dodgers in Dodger Stadium for instance who have poor hitting stats because that is perhaps the worst hitter's park in baseball will benefit from the conversion, while players who played in Coors Field have their statistics reduced. Willie Davis who played fo the Dodgers 1960-1979 had a career .279 BA, after conversion he goes to .301. This is the primary advantage this DB will provide - better representation of a player's abilities.

We are also normalizing player fielding stats to their year and league. Players who played on teams with high strikeout pitching staffs had fewer opportunities to make plays in the field. We adjust player Put Out and Assist totals to adjust for things like this. We also adjusted Double Play totals of all players on teams based on thei teams Expected Double Plays Per Game compared to the League Average Double Plays Per Game of that season. Both of these adjustment formulas come from Bill James' book Win Shares.

07-01-2008, 09:52 PM	#4 (permalink)
pstrickert Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 2,776	This is how Garlon introduced the Garlon/Spritze DB (which, I believe, is used to create neutralized stats in OOTP9): Spritze and I started working on a new modified historical DB for OOTP recently. Spritze has done 99% of the work on it and has made (and is still in the process of making) many meticulous edits to provide the best results with OOTP. The biggest modification we have made with the DB is that it will have park-neutralized player stats. We are using the method described by Bill James in his Historical Abstract to both park-neutralize player stats and convert them to a 750-run environment. If you go to baseball-reference.com you can look up any player and click an option to neutralize stats to a 750-run park-neutral environment. The stats in our DB will essentially be the same as what you would find there since we are using the same conversion technique. Don't be too concerned with the fact that teams weren't scoring 750-runs per season in the Deadball Era and that this conversion will have a negative impact on simulation results. In fact, just the opposite will happen and we willl see even better results across all eras. OOTP's League Totals Modifiers control the environment and ratios of things like BA and HR per AB, the conversion of the stats in our DB to a higher run-scoring environment just changes player ratings...not the results of the simulation. The important aspect of player ratings in OOTP is how players compare relative to one another, not the absolute value of the ratings. This park-neutral 750-run conversion puts all players on an equal footing for comparison so that players who played for the Dodgers in Dodger Stadium for instance who have poor hitting stats because that is perhaps the worst hitter's park in baseball will benefit from the conversion, while players who played in Coors Field have their statistics reduced. Willie Davis who played fo the Dodgers 1960-1979 had a career .279 BA, after conversion he goes to .301. This is the primary advantage this DB will provide - better representation of a player's abilities. We are also normalizing player fielding stats to their year and league. Players who played on teams with high strikeout pitching staffs had fewer opportunities to make plays in the field. We adjust player Put Out and Assist totals to adjust for things like this. We also adjusted Double Play totals of all players on teams based on thei teams Expected Double Plays Per Game compared to the League Average Double Plays Per Game of that season. Both of these adjustment formulas come from Bill James' book Win Shares.