2009 National League Preview: East
The focus of the 2009 Major League Baseball preview now shifts to the National League, home of the defending World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers. First on the preview list is the NL East, where the Washington Nationals still appear to be the class of the division, but moves by the Mets and Phillies have put them in a position to challenge the Nats.
Atlanta Braves
2008 Record: 67-95, 4th, NL East
Key Additions: Radhames Liz-MR, Martin Prado-3B, Hee Seop Choi-1B
Key Losses: Marlon Byrd-RF, Scott Hairston-3B, Sean Casey-1B, Shannon Stewart-LF, Jason Bergmann-SP, Matt Smith-MR
You would think that a team with stars like Roy Halladay, Danny Haren, Ichiro Suzuki, Pat Burrell and Prince Fielder would be better than fourth in their own division, right? Well, if that team is the Atlanta Braves, the reason that they finished fourth last season is that those stars are pretty much the only good players that they have. Burdened by a smaller market, the Braves of 2009 are not the same team that won 11 World Series in their first 11 tries, as the Braves of the past have been. Instead, this team, while showing signs of improvement, is being handicapped by a lack of fan support that is driving the talent out, while forcing management to build from within.
Behind Halladay and Haren, the pitching staff is shaky at best. However, if those two pitch like they did last year, the cellar might not be out of the question for Atlanta. Halladay is looking to improve off a 11-15 season, while Haren went 11-12 last year. Neither had an ERA under 4.80, while Felix Diaz finished with a 3.34 ERA, best of the starting rotation...but he won only 4 games. Behind him, Jo-Jo Reyes and Brandon Claussen are questionable options, at best, while Manny Parra is the best thing going for Atlanta out of the bullpen.
The middle of the lineup is stacked, with the bats of Fielder and Burrell leading the way. Fielder is coming off a 44 home run, 132 RBI season that ended early when he fractured his skull on a pitched ball in early September. The Braves are hoping to have him back for the start of the season, but nothing is set in stone yet. Meanwhile, Burrell, who was brought over in a midseason trade with the Marlins last season, still has one of the best pair of eyes in the game, but needs to improve on a 16 home run, 60 RBI 2008 season. Ichiro Suzuki, even at age 35, provides an excellent leadoff bat, especially if he can hit .371 like he did last season. Aside from those three, catcher Chris Coste is the best bat in the lineup, and his 15 homers and 70 RBI were both third on the team last season.
Prognosis: If everything clicks right for the Braves this season, they could very well move into second place. However, they still have to get past the Mets and Phillies to do so, and that just doesn't seem very likely this season. The Braves could be good, but it's more wishful thinking than anything else.
Prediction: 4th Place, NL East
Florida Marlins
2008 Record: 65-97, 5th, NL West
Key Additions: Edwin Encarnacion-3B, Tony Graffanino-2B, Antonio Rocha-LF, Frank Castillo-MR, Dave Krynzel-CF, Geoff Blum-SS, B.J. Ryan-CL
Key Losses: Jose Cruz, Jr.-LF, Scott Hatteberg-1B, Joe Borowski-MR, James Hoey-MR, Jose Valverde-MR, Khalil Greene-SS
Somehow, the Florida Marlins went from a team that looked like they were on the brink of capturing their first World Series to a last place team in the span of just one season. The 89-73 National League East championship from 2007 is already a distant memory, replaced instead with the cold facts that the Marlins are getting old, fast, and it seems like there is very little that can be done about it.
The pitching staff is where the age bubble can be felt the most. Only two starters are under the age of 30, and none finished with a winning record. In fact, only Carl Pavano finished with the less than ten losses on the season. Ryan Madsen, Joel Pineiro and Jarrod Washburn each lost 13 games, while Jeremy Guthrie lost 16, but also finished second on the team in wins with 8. Florida did pick up B.J. Ryan to help with the back of the bullpen, but with Chad Bradford coming off a good season as the closer, it seems like the money spent to bring in Ryan could have been better spent somewhere else. The less said about the rest of the bullpen, the better.
Meanwhile, the Marlins are already trying to work past the age effects in their starting lineup, as only three starters are over age 30. However, those three players are all over the age of 35, and Kevin Millar and Jason Varitek are also the offensive leaders of the team as well. Millar finished 2008 with a team leading 20 home runs and 71 RBI, while Varitek added 17 homers and 86 RBI of his own. New additions Geoff Blum and Edwin Encarnaction bring more youth and skill to the lineup, while the return of Carl Crawford from a lengthy injury should help as well.
Prognosis: The Marlins shouldn't be half bad at the plate, but the problem isn't there; it's with the people pitching to the opposing teams. Even with younger players and veterans in the lineup, there's a limit to how many 10-9 games a team can play in. Without a solid arm in the starting rotation, there's no way the Marlins can compete this year, and it doesn't look good for the next few years, either.
Prediction: 5th Place, NL East
New York Mets
2008 Record: 75-87, 3rd, NL East
Key Additions: Chris Duffy-CF, Alex Rios-RF, Norris Hopper-CF, Juan Cruz-SP, Josh Towers-SP, Rich Aurilia-SS
Key Losses: B.J. Ryan-CL, Aramis Ramirez-3B, Bill Hall-CF, Chris Ray-MR, Eddy Diaz-2B
Two straight 75-87 seasons have Mets fans clamoring for change, and this offseason, the Mets made it happen, bringing in several big name free agents, including one of the best pitchers on the market. However, losses in their starting lineup might be too much to keep them from the top of what should be a crowded NL East race.
The main gripe with the Mets last season was their pitching, so New York went out and signed Josh Towers in the offseason. In Minnesota in 2008, Towers went 17-8 with a 3.13 ERA in 230 innings, while allowing opponents to hit just .242 against him. Then, they went out and signed strikeout artist Juan Cruz as well. Combined with Matt Garza, the Mets have two of the best strikeout pitchers in the National League now in their rotation. To go along with those three, New York also has Mike Pelfrey (11-11, 4.75 ERA) and Anibal Sanchez (10-5, 4.87 ERA). The bullpen has a major hole in it from the loss of B.J. Ryan, and pressure will be on Jason Stanford early and often. It will be interesting to see how the media reacts after he blows his first save.
New York brought in Alex Rios and Rich Aurilia to help supply the lineup with some pop, which is a good thing, considering they lost Aramis Ramirez and Bill Hall in the offseason. Their combined 256 RBI last season will be tough to replace, even for Rios and Aurilia. Aside from the new additions, Brad Wilkerson (.253, 28-89) provides a solid bat in the middle of the lineup, as does third baseman Brendan Ryan (.286, 17-81). The rest of the lineup, outside of Kevin Youkilis, is a bit weak, however.
Prognosis: Had the Mets been able to keep either Hall or Ramirez to go along with the signings they made, they could very well be the class of the NL East. However, with those two big bats both out of their lineup, it's going to be hard to keep up with the Phillies and Nationals. New York should keep pace for a while, thanks to their pitching, but in the end, the lack of offense is going to be too much for them to overcome.
Prediction: 3rd Place, NL East
Philadelphia Phillies
2008 Record: 81-81, 2nd, NL East
Key Additions: Chase Utley-2B, Ryan Garko-1B, Josh Johnson-SP, Jared Burton-MR, Garret Anderson-LF, Timo Perez-RF, John Bale-MR, Joakim Soria-CL
Key Losses: Lyle Overbay-1B, Jay Witasick-MR, Frank Castillo-MR, Jose Reyes-SS, Aubrey Huff-1B, Ryan Ludwick-LF
One hundred and eight years. That's how long Major League Baseball has had a World Series to crown a champion every October. Every one of the original 16 teams has won at least one championship, except one. The Philadelphia Phillies have gone their entire existence without winning a World Series, but they're looking to change that, and fast. While they may not get there this year, they've certainly taken steps in the right direction, and it shouldn't be too much longer before they finally can raise a championship pennant.
The starting pitching staff was hardly touched, as the core group of John Lackey, Tim Lincecum and Shawn Hill have all returned, as has fifth starter Mark Redman. Joining them is Josh Johnson, who was brought in from Tampa Bay. The bigger changes come in the bullpen, where John Bale and Jared Burton were brought in to patch the holes from last season, and Joakim Soria was brought in to close. While some of the incumbent relief pitchers are still weak, Philadelphia is hoping that what they've added will overcome their weaknesses.
There were changes in the starting lineup, as well. Gone is malcontent Lyle Overbay and his massive contract, as well as solid producers Aubrey Huff and Ryan Ludwick. However, the loss the Phillies will feel the most is shortstop Jose Reyes, who is now making his home down I-95 in Baltimore. Tony Gwynn, Jr will attempt to fill his shoes in the leadoff spot, but nothing is certain there yet. What is certain is that the Phillies decided to be big spenders on the free agent market, bringing in second baseman Chase Utley. While Utley is coming off a bad foot injury last season, the Phillies are confident he can get back to his All Star form. He joins a lineup with possibly the youngest starting outfield in the majors, and if those youngsters can reach their potential, there's no telling what can happen this season.
Prognosis: Of course, the chances of all three outfielders actually reaching their potential in the same year are slim and none, and slim's leaving town. The Phillies have a solid pitching staff, and a rock at closer, but their lineup is still young, and could take another year or two to fully develop. They should make a push for the Wild Card this season, but they could also fall flat if their young players don't develop more.
Prediction: 2nd Place-NL East
Washington Nationals
2008 Record: 102-60, 1st, NL East, Lost to Pittsburgh, 3-0, NLDS
Key Additions: Jeremy Accardo-MR, Billy Wagner-MR, Hideki Okajima-MR
Key Losses: Jonny Gomes-LF, Francisco Rodriguez-CL, Johnny Peralta-3B, Scott MacRae
For the first time since their move from Montreal, the Washington Nationals made the playoffs. However, their trip was very short, as they were upset in three games by the Wild Card Pittsburgh Pirates. Now, with the team a year older and a year wiser, most Washington fans are expecting success in 2009, and the Nationals should be able to bring it to them again this year.
There are very few teams that can match the pitchers that Washington has in its starting rotation. All five starters return from last season, and all five reached double digits in wins last year as well. Edwin Jackson was the surprise of the season, going 14-2 after being called up from Triple A, while Barry Zito, Bartolo Colon and Esteban Loaiza provide a solid back of the rotation for Jackson and staff ace Sergio Mitre. The bullpen will be hurting with the loss of closer Francisco Rodriguez, and for now, Matt Capps will be taking over the closing duties. If he falters, however, there are several pitchers who could take his spot, including Billy Wagner, Jeremy Accardo and Hideki Okajima, all newcomers this season.
One look at the Nationals' lineup, and you're quite aware why they had the best record in baseball last season. With a mix of speed and power, Washington is almost without equal at the plate. Ryan Howard (.314, 42-148) leads the way at the plate, backed up by Grady Sizemore (.303, 24-87) and Hanley Ramirez (.368, 22-92, 39 SB). Ramirez is a rare blend of speed and power, and his speed is matched up with Ryan Spillborghs and Omar Infante at the top of the lineup. Their one weakness could be at catcher, where rookie Julian Azcarreta should be a whiz behind the plate, but could take some time to get used to life at it.
Prognosis: Barring a major rash of injuries to both their starting pitching and their batting order, the Nationals should be the team to beat in the National League East once again. They have the arms to win close games, and the bats and speed to pull ahead in shootouts. The Mets and Phillies should provide a good chase, but it's unlikely that either can catch Washington, at least this season.
Prediction: 1st Place, NL East
Finally, someone that doesn't think we walk on water and crap rainbows. I've been waiting for something like this to wake us up a little bit.
A small smile crossed my face as I continued to read Sports Illustrated's MLB preview for this coming season. Spring Training was about to get started, and while the heat in Florida wasn't bad in March, it still wasn't fun, either. Of course, the way the local media was praising us, it seemed like we should be able to stop the heat while winning the NL East and curing AIDS at the same time. I'd done all the interviews I could, telling people to be patient, that this is only year one of a three year plan, but no one wants to listen. They see Utley and the new pitchers, and think that this is THE year.
I'd been waiting for someone to bring us back down to earth, and I think this little article's just the thing to do it. I still think we've got a couple of things to worry about, especially if any of our young guys struggle early. I doubt that Anderson or Perez can carry the load for any extended period of time, and our bullpen could still be leaky, too. Of course, there's still another month until Opening Day, so anything can happen before then.
I watched as the practice continued outside my window, then turned my attention back to the article.
This guy really loves the Nationals...I think this whole thing is going up in the locker room. Nothing like a little bulletin board material in March, anyway.