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Old 09-13-2008, 06:24 PM   #93 (permalink)
fhomess
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Here’s the season totals summary for 1876. Here's how the numbers compared with real life:

NA = Real National Association
TBS = The Baseball Saga (my sim)
* = estimated totals (no actual league totals available)

Code:
Stat       NA     TBS      %Diff
G         520     520       0.0%
AB      20121   20353       1.1
H        5338    5373       0.7
2B        633     633       0.0
3B        181     181       0.0
HR         40      31      29.0
BB        336     323       4.0
K         589     564       4.4
SB        260*    268       3.0
CS        141*    133       6.0
R        3066    3116       1.6
AVG      .265    .264       0.4
OBP      .277    .280       1.1
SLG      .321    .317       1.1
IP       4739  4616.1       2.7
CG        473     276      71.4
SHO        47      15     213.3
ERA      2.31    2.61      11.5
Notes:
1. I hit doubles and triples right on the nose! HR’s were off, though in general this is a pretty good showing.

2. I found that messing a bit with more of the settings allowed me to get the totals a little more accurate than I have been in the past. In particular, I looked at runs allowed and ERA to try to tune the fielding rate. Since ERA only includes earned runs, you can get a feel for whether or not errors are too frequent by looking at the relationship between ERA and total runs allowed. I must say, however, that my tuning wasn’t very scientific. Really, just a lot of trial and error.

3. There are a number of statistics that we can tune in league totals that we don’t have actual league totals for during the time period I’m simming. Stolen bases are an example of this. What I’ve decided to do is get an estimated total for those statistics. How? Well it’s not very scientific, but I’ve been projecting those stats based on league trends from years that I do actually have some data. I then added in a small randomizer since I know that these stats didn’t track any sort of linear or exponential best line fit. At any rate, my goal for stolen base attempts this season was 401, which is exactly what I had. My success rate was just slightly higher than what I had projected.

League Leading Stats
These stats represent the top individual performance in each category.
Code:
Stat       NA     TBS
AVG      .429    .352*
OBP      .462    .369*
SLG      .590    .431*
H         138     107
2B         21      15
3B         14       9
HR          5       2
BB         20      14
SB         23      17

ERA      1.23    1.98+
W          47      29
IP      622.0   451.2
K         122      66
CG         66      35
SHO        16       3
L          35      24
*-Minimum of 200 PA's on the batting rates..
+-Minimum of 200 IP for the ERA title.

Actual League Settings
These are the values I had entered on the Strategy tab in League Setup.
Code:
League Totals         Modifiers
AB        167353
H          44522         .955
2B          8919         .530
3B           898        1.230
HR          5451        4.670
BB         16222        1.350
HBP         1850         .740
K          31828         .910
BABIP       .272
Errors                  5.000
DP's                     .400
SP End                  6.000
RP End                  1.000
GB%                      .920
WP                      1.257
Balks                    .100
PB's                   15.000
SF                       .100
SB                      1.000
SB Att                   .310
SB Suc%                 1.110
The process for creating the National League in my game was to create it as an entirely new league. Once the league was created, I used the option on the Game Setup Strategy tab to import league settings for 1876. The numbers that I got were fairly different from what I had previously in the NA. Ultimately, you really have the option of modifying either the league totals raw numbers or the modifiers to get the results you’re looking for. I adjust the modifiers since they’re easy to understand in terms of what you’re looking for. The only thing you have to remember is that a lot of them are interrelated, so you have to do everything iteratively and in small increments. For those with control theory, I’m just using a basic proportional control concept.

I have the settings checked to automatically adjust league totals modifiers after each season and to automatically import player creation modifiers. That said, I modified almost all of these settings in order to get the results that I did.
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