Quote:
Originally Posted by andymac
Wouldn't it show up in the absence of those players though? If Albert Pujols gets hurt and doesn't have the at-bats to be in the study, that means a less talented player is getting a lot more at-bats and therefore appears in the study when they wouldn't have had Pujols been healthy.
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No.
The aging chains are player-specific. The process assumes the mythical "average player" ages the same as any other player. They may peak at different values (Pujol's HR-rate will peak at 7 gabillion times that of Juan Pierre), but on average they will both peak at 27 and they will both grow to that peak at the same _rate_. That's the beauty of the chain process. It's attempting to model how the average human being ages, so data from a group can be successfully used to predict how any individual will progress.
So, when you take Albert pujols out, you're still using a big collection of players that consist of Juan Pierre, Barry Bonds, WIllie Mayes, Roger Metzgar, Harmon Killabrew, Lonnie Smith, Dave Parker ... blah, blah, blah, ... to guess how any othe human will grow (given their unique starting point).