Diamond Notes with Peter Gammons
May 26, 2008
How will the loss of Carlos Lee affect the Houston Astros?
That's the question on a the minds of a lot of General Managers around the league this morning. As further news leaks out of the Astros camp as to the extent of their star sluggers injury, the Astros are reportedly mulling their replacement options.
While the season is still young, the Astros need to be realistic in their approach to fill Lee's void. Their payroll is already hovering around $100 million. They currently trail Chicago by 12.0 games in the NL Central and Philadelphia by 6 games in the NL Wild Card. They have the 7th best offense in the National League (4.8 runs/game) and the 9th best pitching staff (4.40 ERA) and yet are 24-28. They've lost 7 of their last 10 games.
With Darin Erstad, Jose cruz Jr. and David Newhan on their bench, manager Cecil Cooper has options to fill the void while Lance Berkman, Miguel Tejada and Ty Willingham pick up the slack.
"This gives them a chance to really let [Michael] Bourn and [Hunter] Pence show what they are made of," one former NL Central GM said. "They've been holding onto Pence in every deal and now we get to see if he is the real deal or not. Was last year the truth or a were opposing pitchers unaware of his holes."
With Pence and Bourn in the lineup full time, the future of the Houston Astros is coming into focus. Lee is signed through 2012 and he jumps up to $18.5m after this season. Lance Berkman is signed through 2011 at $14.5m and Miguel Tejada through 2009 at $13m. Other than those three their only big money offensive player is Kaz Matsui who is at least as likely to show up from Spring Training each year as he is to give it all up and go back to Japan. The rest of the roster are mostly journeymen (Morgan Ensberg, Newhan, Mark Loretta) that could be replaced very easily.
"I think they are done with this crew," a rival GM said. "Tejada is a shell of his former self and Lee was a DH playing the field already and this injury isn't going to help. Oswalt and Berkman. That's their present. Best to start the rebuilding and stop letting their picks get away in free agency."
With Milwaukee developing youngsters at an alarming rate (Rickie Weeks, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Yovani Gallardo) and Pittsburgh starting to show some signs of a plan, the Astros are behind the curve in the youth movement in the NL Central. And the present, with Chicago and St. Louis much more attractive markets for free agents, Houston has their work cut out for them.
One name to watch is Red Sox center fielder Coco Crisp. With Jacoby Ellsbury the future of the Red Sox and Brandon Moss proving he could play everyday right now, the Sox outfield is crowded enough that General Manager Theo Esptein is not ruling out moving Crisp if they could get some young prospects back. The 18-year old Crisp is signed for a reasonable $5.8 million in 2009 and $8.0 in 2010.
An outfield consisting of Crisp, Bourn and Pence would be one of the most athletic in the majors, and would allow the Astros to leave Berkman at first base, where he is less of a defensive liability.
From the Sox standpoint, the move would obviously open up at bats for their upcoming outfielders while replenishing a system that has seen quite a few graduates in recent years.