[pstrickert]

I'll definitely need some help figuring this one out.

In the most recent 1974 season sim, CAL finished ahead of OAK with the best record in baseball. (I left Rudy May and Bill Singer on the CAL roster, BTW.) Instead of looking at CAL (which I'm tired of!), I decided to look closer at OAK. IRL, OAK hit the second most HR in the AL and gave up the FEWEST HR in the AL. In this sim, OAK hit the third most HR, but gave up the MOST HR in the AL. Huh?! This could be why the OAK staff had a 3.66 ERA in the sim (compared to 2.95 IRL). (This, BTW, happens invariably when I sim the 1974 season -- the OAK team ERA is much higher than IRL.)

Here are some AL stats:

Sim (vs. Real)

BA: .257 (.258)
SLG: .378 (.371)
ERA: 3.73 (3.62)
BABIP: .284 (.284)
HR: 1529 (1369)
AB: 67090 (66044)

The LTM for HRs will need to be modified a little. Even so, how do you explain these individual results?

Sim (vs. Real)

Holtzman

IP: 318 (255)
HR: 19 (14)
BABIP: .278 (.293)
MOV: 158
GB%: 56

Hunter

IP: 312 (318)
HR: 42 (25)
BABIP: .270 (.238)
MOV: 124
GB%: 46

Blue

IP: 296 (282)
HR: 32 (17)
BABIP: .288 (.266)
MOV: 152
GB%: 53

Abbott

IP: 180 (96)
HR: 22 (4)
BABIP: .240 (.266)
MOV: 145
GB%: 49

Fingers

IP: 51 (119)
HR: 5 (5)
BABIP: .308 (.285)
MOV: 157
GB%: 64

NOTE: Hamilton, one of the OAK starters, was traded early in the season in the sim.