Quote:
Originally Posted by swampdragon
The DIPS theory is that BABIP is mostly a combination of luck and the defense behind the pitcher. If you follow that theory, and you look at the BABIP of the other A's pitchers you listed, you come up with two reasons for the discrepancy:
1. Hunter was lucky in real life that year. If you look around your replay, you'll find other pitchers well below their BABIP totals. Those are the ones who got lucky in your replay.
2. All of the A's have high BABIPs, so the game is probably underrating one or more defenders.
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This is what I was getting at with my post earlier,DIPS are a much better indicator of how a pitcher is performing because it takes out all of the other factors including luck,fielding and park effects.According to a study done by Tom Tango,Erik Allen,and Arvis Hsu,luck is the #1 determiner of the fate of a ball in play,hjere's the percentages:
1.Luck 44%
2.Pitcher 28%
3.Defense 17%
4.Park 11%
I'd be very interested to see how Clay Dreslough's DICE formula or Tango's FIP formula would match up.
FIP=13(HR)+3(BB)-2(K's)/IP+3.20
DICE= 3.00+13(HR)+3(BB+HBP)-2K/IP