Quote:
Originally Posted by swampdragon
The DIPS theory is that BABIP is mostly a combination of luck and the defense behind the pitcher. If you follow that theory, and you look at the BABIP of the other A's pitchers you listed, you come up with two reasons for the discrepancy:
1. Hunter was lucky in real life that year. If you look around your replay, you'll find other pitchers well below their BABIP totals. Those are the ones who got lucky in your replay.
2. All of the A's have high BABIPs, so the game is probably underrating one or more defenders.
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As I've said, I've simmed the 1974 season dozens of times. How can Hunter have bad luck every time? (If it wasn't for bad luck, he'd have no luck at all.) The A's staff, too, simply does not perform up to expectations. (And what about the fluctuating GB% from one import to the next?) I'm inclined to think that #2 (above) is the primary problem.
Thanks, guys. I appreciate the replies.