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Rays Notes - I'm sorry for any subjectivity here. I'll do my best to make a valid case.
Matt Garza - Seems underdeveloped. The editor shows him in line for a 4.00 ERA. In 2007 his ERA was 3.69 as a rookie. In 2008 it was 3.70. Right now in 2008 it is 3.67. That seems like a pretty stable skill set. The problem seems to be in his Stuff. His best pitch is a 92 mph 2-seam fastball that moves down and in. His 4 seamer is regular at 94/95 and touches 96.
Kazmir - seems overdeveloped. His editor's 3.11 ERA is much better than his career high. In recent years his slider has become much less of a factor and his fastball seems overrated as well.
David Price - The pitch ratings are a bit off. Right now's he's getting credit for one of the best changeups in the league (that rating is more befitting Shields). Price was actually in AAA working on his change-up. It is league average at best at this point. On the other hand, his fastball is dominant he can hit 98 regularly but gets wild at that pace. He throws it with more control at 95,96.
Shields - May be nitpicking, but the expected 3.88 ERA for Shields seems high. He's shown a growth trend over the last 3 years that makes a 3.65 seem more reasonable. In addition, his fastball is underrated here, along with his change which is one of the best in the league. His velocity sits comfortably at 91-92 IRL
Balfour - His slider is better than he thinks, but it's not THAT good.. He's basically a 1 pitch pitcher.
Carlos Pena - Won a gold glove last year and has been one of the best defensive 1bmen in the league for a few years. the 6 rating at First is low
Willy Aybar - Defensive ratings are ridiculously good. He's not a better 1st baseman than Pena and he's not better than Longoria at 3rd, but these ratings say he is.
Longoria - Nitpicking, but that 7 defensive rating is low. He's constantly getting praised as one of the best defensive 3b in the league and has been compared to Schmidt and Brooks Robinson. Specifically the rating of turning the double play is low, along with range. Remember, he played SS in college and was expected to play 2b when drafted.
Gabe Gross - A little too good defensively. His .271 expected BA is high in comparison with his career #'s. Just seems a shade too good of a player.
Gabe Kapler - he's nowhere near this good and his component skills from last year showed that it was flukey.
Carl Crawford - numbers seem too depressed based on last years performance. He's shown that he's a consistent .300 hitter when healthy. His .770 OPS is low compared to history, particularly easy to spot the missing triples in the editor #'s.
...That's all I have for now, I'm not going to bother with the minor leaguers, even though Hellickson is a better prospect than that, as is desmond Jennings
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