You know, there's a lot of talk about stats that are predictors. I've just been delving into RTOT today. The years 74-76 and 83-87 are my favorites. I've played thousands and thousands of games in those periods with various baseball applications (APBA, STRAT, MOGUL, OOTP). Plus, I was an avid baseball fan in that era. So, I kind of know those rosters inside out.
Putting aside for a moment whether managers had it right on philosophy back in the 70s, the predictive ability of this stat regarding trades has been fascinating so far-- and I might add, a real testament to STRAT's defense ratings, an area of immense pride for the company for years.
The stat appears early on to be a great predictor of moves based on a particular philosophy.
Quote:
AL EAST 74
Oakland 38.8
Texas -28.8 (5gb)
Min -20
chic -39.3
kc -25
cal -25
|
Texas people apparently perceived this "run saved" issue through watching games and other stats. In the next few years, they found a good CF (Beniquez, an eventual gold glover) and moved Harrah to 3B, picked up Campy at SS, a year after trading their other shortstop prospect, Roy Smalley, to Minnesota for pitching help.
Meanwhile, Minnesotat took 2b Carew (-6.5 in 74 and 4.1 in 75) and moved him to 1B, where he scored a +9. In 1975, Danny Thompson scored horribly at SS (-14). So, Minnesota traded for Texas prospect Roy Smalley (+5.2 in 76) and set Bob Randall at 2b (-1.8, +2.9 and +14.1 in his first 3 seasons with Minn).
So, looking at the infield in 74 for Minn, 1B Kusiak, 2B, Carew, SS Thompson, Minnesota scored about a -5.
Minn (sensing the difference between Baltimore and Oakland in this area?) tried to improve its infield defense. In 76, with Carew at 1B (+8.9), Randall at 2b (-1.8) and Smalley at SS (5.2), Minnesota's differential in the category was about +12.7 runs saved above average player, just with those 3 positions changes.
When you look at the leaders in that category in 74 (Bost 46, Balt 42, Oak, 38), that's a significant percentage.
Over in the east in 74,
Quote:
BAL 43.6 (above the average player runs saved number)
NY 21.7
BOS 46.1
CLE 37
MIL 18
DET -26
|
the Yankees seemed to see their own mediocre score in a category that had yet to be devised. The Orioles infield of
2b: Grich (6.8)
SS Belanger ( +17.9)
3b Robinson (13.0)
finished with +37.7 runs saved over the average players per year.
Meanwhile, the Yanks finished with
2b Sandy Alomar (4.8),
SS Jim Mason (-5)
and Graig Nettles (13.0)
for a total of +13.2.
The Yanks started looking for a double-play combo to beef up a score they didn't know existed.
They traded for 2B Willie Randolph and got SS Bucky Dent. In 1977, when the Yankees newest dynasty began after a disappointing 76 series showing, the infield score looked like this:
Randolph +11.6
Dent 10.7
Nettles 17.5
+39.8 runs above average player saved... from those three positions alone.
Two observations. These numbers can get pretty wild looking with just a smaller playing times. But then, most numbers can. The general idea still holds true if you look at career numbers in this category. A part of me hates to do that, since it flattens out some great players who get old, failing to reflect some great seasons for what they were.