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BostonRS14 · 07-06-2009, 09:20 PM

July 17, 2008

MidSeason Report

No time like the All Star Break to check in on the sox and see how they are performing. The Red Sox currently have the best record in all of baseball (64-33, .660) and are comfortable 6.5 games ahead of the Yankees (57-39) in the American League East. In fact, the Sox are currently 12.5 games ahead of the Baltimore Orioles (51-45), who are in second place in AL Wild Card standings behind New York. A playoff shot is not guaranteed, but it certainly will be of epic proportion if the Sox did not qualify at this point.

With such a lead, there shouldn't be too much room for complaining. Certainly fans in Toronto (39-56) and Tampa Bay (43-52) would relish the chance to be in the Red Sox place. But, Red Sox Nation being Red Sox Nation, fans are finding dents in the Sox armor. Since starting the season 43-15, the Red Sox are just 21-18 since June 1st.

The major area of concern is the drop in production of Sox batters. Overall, the Red Sox are 3rd in the AL in runs scored with 490, or 5.05 per game. With a team ERA of 3.69 (best in the AL), the Red Sox have been success in outscoring their opponents, but their margin of differential has dropped as the season has progressed.

But, the Red Sox, as evident in the chart above, have seen their runs per game output drop from 5.74 to 4.92 for the first half of June. In the same time period, the pitching staff has seen their runs allowed increase from 3.89 per game to 4.92 per game. Despite the increase in runs allowed, the Sox don't appear to be in a panic mode, as their starting five have performed constantly well and their bullpen has only one pitcher (mopup Bryan Corey) with an ERA higher than 3.00.

"The weak arm in their rotation appears to be Buchholz," one rival talent evaluator said, "and even he is better than most team's #3 starters. With Daisuke and Beckett at the top, and Wakefield holding in there, they have time for the kids to learn on the job. If it gets worse, they go out and get a Sabathia, a Byrd, or even a Peavy or Carpenter."

Offensively, the Sox are beginning to show some signs of life after watching their bats go cold all at once in June.A large reason for that has been the slump endured by J.D. Drew, who has been teatering on losing his starting spot in the lineup. Manager Terry Francona's loyalty to his veteran players is one of the few reasons Drew is still in possession of his job since he has batted .206 (.400 obp, 4 HRs, 14 RBIs) since the first of June. Only because of the lack of consistent output by Brandon Moss, Jacoby Ellsbury and Willie Bloomquist does Drew still have a spot in the starting lineup.

Not all the blame falls on Drew. Dustin Pedroia is only hitting .247/.294/.406 in 91 games in his sophomore season. Coco Crisp has a .327 obp out of the top of the lineup. Julio Lugo (.228 avg.), Kevin Youkilis (.269), and Mike Lowell (.261) are all batting below expectations as well. Only Manny Ramirez (.325, 16 HRs, 56 RBIs) and David Ortiz (.313, 21 HRs, 67 RBIs) have hit consistently all season long.

If the Sox could find a taker for Lugo's or Drew's contract, they would be in the market for a big bat, but, with the trade market yet to heat up, it appears a minor deal for some bench support is more likely.

"They have the ammunition to pull of something big," ESPN's Peter Gammons recently commented. "Buchholz, [Justin] Masterson, [Michael] Bowden, [Bill] Rowell, Lars Anderson, Oscar Tejada. They all have been mentioned by other GMs as being not on the off-limits list, so the Sox could be big players come deadline time."

Down in the minor leagues, the Red Sox affiliates have not been performing particularly well, mostly due to the graduation of their top prospects (Pedroia, Jon Lester, Buchholz, etc.) the last few seasons. The Red Sox minor leaguers have quietly put together the third best overall record in MiLB at 242-205, .541. Pawtucket (48-52, .480) and the short-season Lowell Spinners (14-15, .483) are the only two clubs with records under .500. Portland (52-46, .531), Lancaster (59-37, .615), Greenville (52-45, .536) and the Gulf Coast League Red Sox (17-10, .630) have all been successful this season, highlighting the hard work of the team's scouting department.

One of the many highlights coming out of the minors this season has been the signing of Costa Rican free agent Lucio 'Oats' Serrano. The 18 year middle infield is currently with the Lowell Spinners after a short stay with the Gulf Coast League team. In 15 games with Lowell, Serrano is batting .357/.393/.429 with 20 hits in 56 at bats. While he is still a few seasons away from Fenway, Serrano could be a superstar if he figures it all out...with "true impact potential." Also drawing attention has been Justin Masterson in Pawtucket. Masterson would probably be in the Sox rotation right now if Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz weren't holding their own. Sandwiched around his one start with the Sox (6.0 IP, 4 Hs, 1 R, 2 K's v. Orioles), Masterson has started 21 games with the Paw Sox, posting a dissevering 6-5 record, mostly due to a lack of run support. His 2.49 ERA, 139 strikeouts and 37.3 VORP are all second best in the International League.

According to its last report, Baseball American had the Sox, led by Serrano, Buccholz, Lars Anderson, Jacoby Ellsbury and Masterson, ranked second in baseball on the strength of their minor league system, trailing only the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Sox are a remarkable 21-6 against lefites this season.
The Red Sox are 301-7 (.638%) at home and 34-16 (.680%) away from Fenway.
The Red Sox are averaging 5.05 runs per game (5.23/home, 4.88/away), while allowing 4.0 (4.19/home, 3.82/away).
Oakland (258-181, .588) and Florida (247-199, .554) are the only two organizations with better overall minor league records. Arizona (173-276, .385) is the worst, with not a single team playing above .500.
Jonathan Papelbon's 99 saves currently rank third all-time amongst Red Sox pitchers, trailing Bob Stanley (132) and Dick Radatz (104).
David Ortiz (299) is currently 7th on the Red Sox all-time home runs list, one behind Mo Vaughn (230). Manny Ramirez is 5th with 270. Ted Williams holds the club record with 521.
Only the New York Yankees (Joba Chamberlain, Mike Mussina, and Chien-Ming Wang) have more 10 game winners than the Red Sox (Matsuzaka, Wakefield). The Mets (Maine, Sosa) and Cardinals (Wainright, Lohse) also have two a piece.

Against their division rivals, the Red Sox have faired fairly well, posting a 23-26 record against the American League East.
Baltimore: 6-6 overall (3-3 home, 3-3 road)
New York: 5-4 overall (2-1, 3-3)
Tampa Bay: 7-5 overall (3-3, 4-2)
Toronto: 5-1 overall (2-1, 3-0)

The Sox come out of the break with a six game road trip through Anaheim and Seattle before returning home to face the Yankees and Angels at Fenway leading up to the trade deadline on the 31st of July.

07-06-2009, 09:20 PM	#105 (permalink)
BostonRS14 All Star Reserve Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Red Sox Nation/Baltimore Posts: 789 Blog Entries: 1 Thanks: 17 Thanked 14x in 4 posts	2008 All Star Break Report July 17, 2008 MidSeason Report No time like the All Star Break to check in on the sox and see how they are performing. The Red Sox currently have the best record in all of baseball (64-33, .660) and are comfortable 6.5 games ahead of the Yankees (57-39) in the American League East. In fact, the Sox are currently 12.5 games ahead of the Baltimore Orioles (51-45), who are in second place in AL Wild Card standings behind New York. A playoff shot is not guaranteed, but it certainly will be of epic proportion if the Sox did not qualify at this point. With such a lead, there shouldn't be too much room for complaining. Certainly fans in Toronto (39-56) and Tampa Bay (43-52) would relish the chance to be in the Red Sox place. But, Red Sox Nation being Red Sox Nation, fans are finding dents in the Sox armor. Since starting the season 43-15, the Red Sox are just 21-18 since June 1st. The major area of concern is the drop in production of Sox batters. Overall, the Red Sox are 3rd in the AL in runs scored with 490, or 5.05 per game. With a team ERA of 3.69 (best in the AL), the Red Sox have been success in outscoring their opponents, but their margin of differential has dropped as the season has progressed. But, the Red Sox, as evident in the chart above, have seen their runs per game output drop from 5.74 to 4.92 for the first half of June. In the same time period, the pitching staff has seen their runs allowed increase from 3.89 per game to 4.92 per game. Despite the increase in runs allowed, the Sox don't appear to be in a panic mode, as their starting five have performed constantly well and their bullpen has only one pitcher (mopup Bryan Corey) with an ERA higher than 3.00. "The weak arm in their rotation appears to be Buchholz," one rival talent evaluator said, "and even he is better than most team's #3 starters. With Daisuke and Beckett at the top, and Wakefield holding in there, they have time for the kids to learn on the job. If it gets worse, they go out and get a Sabathia, a Byrd, or even a Peavy or Carpenter." Offensively, the Sox are beginning to show some signs of life after watching their bats go cold all at once in June.A large reason for that has been the slump endured by J.D. Drew, who has been teatering on losing his starting spot in the lineup. Manager Terry Francona's loyalty to his veteran players is one of the few reasons Drew is still in possession of his job since he has batted .206 (.400 obp, 4 HRs, 14 RBIs) since the first of June. Only because of the lack of consistent output by Brandon Moss, Jacoby Ellsbury and Willie Bloomquist does Drew still have a spot in the starting lineup. Not all the blame falls on Drew. Dustin Pedroia is only hitting .247/.294/.406 in 91 games in his sophomore season. Coco Crisp has a .327 obp out of the top of the lineup. Julio Lugo (.228 avg.), Kevin Youkilis (.269), and Mike Lowell (.261) are all batting below expectations as well. Only Manny Ramirez (.325, 16 HRs, 56 RBIs) and David Ortiz (.313, 21 HRs, 67 RBIs) have hit consistently all season long. If the Sox could find a taker for Lugo's or Drew's contract, they would be in the market for a big bat, but, with the trade market yet to heat up, it appears a minor deal for some bench support is more likely. "They have the ammunition to pull of something big," ESPN's Peter Gammons recently commented. "Buchholz, [Justin] Masterson, [Michael] Bowden, [Bill] Rowell, Lars Anderson, Oscar Tejada. They all have been mentioned by other GMs as being not on the off-limits list, so the Sox could be big players come deadline time." Down in the minor leagues, the Red Sox affiliates have not been performing particularly well, mostly due to the graduation of their top prospects (Pedroia, Jon Lester, Buchholz, etc.) the last few seasons. The Red Sox minor leaguers have quietly put together the third best overall record in MiLB at 242-205, .541. Pawtucket (48-52, .480) and the short-season Lowell Spinners (14-15, .483) are the only two clubs with records under .500. Portland (52-46, .531), Lancaster (59-37, .615), Greenville (52-45, .536) and the Gulf Coast League Red Sox (17-10, .630) have all been successful this season, highlighting the hard work of the team's scouting department. One of the many highlights coming out of the minors this season has been the signing of Costa Rican free agent Lucio 'Oats' Serrano. The 18 year middle infield is currently with the Lowell Spinners after a short stay with the Gulf Coast League team. In 15 games with Lowell, Serrano is batting .357/.393/.429 with 20 hits in 56 at bats. While he is still a few seasons away from Fenway, Serrano could be a superstar if he figures it all out...with "true impact potential." Also drawing attention has been Justin Masterson in Pawtucket. Masterson would probably be in the Sox rotation right now if Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz weren't holding their own. Sandwiched around his one start with the Sox (6.0 IP, 4 Hs, 1 R, 2 K's v. Orioles), Masterson has started 21 games with the Paw Sox, posting a dissevering 6-5 record, mostly due to a lack of run support. His 2.49 ERA, 139 strikeouts and 37.3 VORP are all second best in the International League. According to its last report, Baseball American had the Sox, led by Serrano, Buccholz, Lars Anderson, Jacoby Ellsbury and Masterson, ranked second in baseball on the strength of their minor league system, trailing only the Tampa Bay Rays. The Sox are a remarkable 21-6 against lefites this season. The Red Sox are 301-7 (.638%) at home and 34-16 (.680%) away from Fenway. The Red Sox are averaging 5.05 runs per game (5.23/home, 4.88/away), while allowing 4.0 (4.19/home, 3.82/away). Oakland (258-181, .588) and Florida (247-199, .554) are the only two organizations with better overall minor league records. Arizona (173-276, .385) is the worst, with not a single team playing above .500. Jonathan Papelbon's 99 saves currently rank third all-time amongst Red Sox pitchers, trailing Bob Stanley (132) and Dick Radatz (104). David Ortiz (299) is currently 7th on the Red Sox all-time home runs list, one behind Mo Vaughn (230). Manny Ramirez is 5th with 270. Ted Williams holds the club record with 521. Only the New York Yankees (Joba Chamberlain, Mike Mussina, and Chien-Ming Wang) have more 10 game winners than the Red Sox (Matsuzaka, Wakefield). The Mets (Maine, Sosa) and Cardinals (Wainright, Lohse) also have two a piece. Against their division rivals, the Red Sox have faired fairly well, posting a 23-26 record against the American League East. Baltimore: 6-6 overall (3-3 home, 3-3 road) New York: 5-4 overall (2-1, 3-3) Tampa Bay: 7-5 overall (3-3, 4-2) Toronto: 5-1 overall (2-1, 3-0) The Sox come out of the break with a six game road trip through Anaheim and Seattle before returning home to face the Yankees and Angels at Fenway leading up to the trade deadline on the 31st of July. __________________ Dynasty: Building Dynasties in Boston: 2007: 2008: 102-60 (1st AL East, 1-3 Division Series) 2009: 111-51 (1st AL East, 1-3 DS) MLSB Washington Nationals: 2008-2011 (434-550, .441) \| AMBL Boston Red Sox: 2008-2011 (345-303, 2010 AL East Title)