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pstrickert · 09-04-2009, 02:36 PM

I hope it's OK to post part of Garlon's proposal for historicals here. (Markus incorporated other parts of his proposal in OOTPX, but -- as far as I know -- not this part.) I think it addresses the problem we've discussed in this thread.

8. Overall Team Defense Impact on opposing Batter BABIP rating

NOTE: If we include this in the game we must be very careful to do it correctly. It should be the very last thing we add for historicals if we do it at all. The rest of the fielding improvements will work just fine without this last Modifier.

For historicals we can put one more finishing touch on the fielding dynamics. One thing that somewhat concerns me is how a team's overall defense affects turning a ball in play into an out. Certainly teams with above average defenders at all positions should have a better DER (Defensive Efficiency Record) than a team with all average defenders. So using MLB data from 1996-2006 I compiled data on plays made by each position. What we can do is have OOTP look at the sum of a team's total defensive ability that is on the field and have it affect the likelihood of a hit on a BABIP...this would essentially be modifying a hitter's BABIP rating. Pitchers who have superior defenses behind them compared to the rest of the league will end up with BABIP against that is slightly below league average and vice-versa. This system completely coincides with how I designed the fielding ratings system and the modifiers.

What we can have OOTP do is add up each player's Modified Range Factor (PO+A+DP)/G for the current position they are being used at on the field. So OOTP would look at who is curently playing 1B and find his modified range factor, then look at the 2bmen and find his modified range factor and so on across all 9 positions and add these up. Remember, my Overall Positional Calculation is a direct translation of Modified Range Factor so Modified Range Factor could be backward calculated from the Overall positional Ratings too. We add up the totals for all 9 positions and then divide by 37.2.

Ok, so let's say a team is fielding a defense whose sum Modified Range Factor per Game is a 38.3. We'd take 38.3/37.2 = 1.029 This means that this particular team is 2.9% more likely to turn a ball into an out than an average team. So if the league average BABIP is .300, this team would have a BABIP against of .291 assuming of course that the average Modified Range Factor for all the other teams in an average game over the course of a season is actually 37.2.

If in this example, however, all the other teams in the league were also fielding teams with a 38.3 rating in their average games, then this team in question would be league average in the end. The LTM's for Batting Average and such hold things in check.

The only thing that OOTP would need to do is check the current on-field Defensive Efficiency Rating and use that to multiply a batter's BABIP rating in each AB of the game so that we can account for defensive changes.

Defensive Efficiency Rating formula for OOTP:

(HBA)/(TMR/37.2) = Adjusted BABIP for a hitter

HBA = Hitter's BABIP
TMR = Team's Sum Modified Range Factor
37.2 = Baseline League Expected Sum Modified Range Factor for Teams

Ok, so let's say a hitter has a .280 BABIP ability. And let's say that a team's sum modified range factor is a 38.3.

.280/(38.3/37.2) = .272

This batter will hit .272 on Balls In Play against this team instead of .280.

The formula could also be written as (HBA * 37.2)/TMR

This allows for the overall quality of a team's defense to be factored into the outcomes while at the same time allowing the distribution of Positional Ratings of the players on the field to determine who actually makes a given play after an out is calculated. Team's with higher sum DER will help their pitchers turn more balls in play into outs. With this system it wll now be possible to field quality teams based around pitching and defense in historicals with only 1 extra multiplication factor added into the equation of BABIP for each hitter. This is DIPS at it's best in historicals since pitchers don't control BABIP - the hitters and the team defense do.

If a player is playing out-of-position and therefore does not have a Positional Rating to translate back into a Modified Range Factor, assume these Modified Range Factors for the out-of-position:

P: 1.36
C: 5.43
1B: 7.60
2B: 4.21
3B: 2.14
SS: 3.86
LF: 1.51
CF: 1.95
RF: 1.60

A team with all of their players out-of-position would end up increasing opponent batting average by 25%.

09-04-2009, 02:36 PM	#19 (permalink)
pstrickert Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 5,498 Thanked 297x in 160 posts	I hope it's OK to post part of Garlon's proposal for historicals here. (Markus incorporated other parts of his proposal in OOTPX, but -- as far as I know -- not this part.) I think it addresses the problem we've discussed in this thread. 8. Overall Team Defense Impact on opposing Batter BABIP rating NOTE: If we include this in the game we must be very careful to do it correctly. It should be the very last thing we add for historicals if we do it at all. The rest of the fielding improvements will work just fine without this last Modifier. For historicals we can put one more finishing touch on the fielding dynamics. One thing that somewhat concerns me is how a team's overall defense affects turning a ball in play into an out. Certainly teams with above average defenders at all positions should have a better DER (Defensive Efficiency Record) than a team with all average defenders. So using MLB data from 1996-2006 I compiled data on plays made by each position. What we can do is have OOTP look at the sum of a team's total defensive ability that is on the field and have it affect the likelihood of a hit on a BABIP...this would essentially be modifying a hitter's BABIP rating. Pitchers who have superior defenses behind them compared to the rest of the league will end up with BABIP against that is slightly below league average and vice-versa. This system completely coincides with how I designed the fielding ratings system and the modifiers. What we can have OOTP do is add up each player's Modified Range Factor (PO+A+DP)/G for the current position they are being used at on the field. So OOTP would look at who is curently playing 1B and find his modified range factor, then look at the 2bmen and find his modified range factor and so on across all 9 positions and add these up. Remember, my Overall Positional Calculation is a direct translation of Modified Range Factor so Modified Range Factor could be backward calculated from the Overall positional Ratings too. We add up the totals for all 9 positions and then divide by 37.2. Ok, so let's say a team is fielding a defense whose sum Modified Range Factor per Game is a 38.3. We'd take 38.3/37.2 = 1.029 This means that this particular team is 2.9% more likely to turn a ball into an out than an average team. So if the league average BABIP is .300, this team would have a BABIP against of .291 assuming of course that the average Modified Range Factor for all the other teams in an average game over the course of a season is actually 37.2. If in this example, however, all the other teams in the league were also fielding teams with a 38.3 rating in their average games, then this team in question would be league average in the end. The LTM's for Batting Average and such hold things in check. The only thing that OOTP would need to do is check the current on-field Defensive Efficiency Rating and use that to multiply a batter's BABIP rating in each AB of the game so that we can account for defensive changes. Defensive Efficiency Rating formula for OOTP: (HBA)/(TMR/37.2) = Adjusted BABIP for a hitter HBA = Hitter's BABIP TMR = Team's Sum Modified Range Factor 37.2 = Baseline League Expected Sum Modified Range Factor for Teams Ok, so let's say a hitter has a .280 BABIP ability. And let's say that a team's sum modified range factor is a 38.3. .280/(38.3/37.2) = .272 This batter will hit .272 on Balls In Play against this team instead of .280. The formula could also be written as (HBA * 37.2)/TMR This allows for the overall quality of a team's defense to be factored into the outcomes while at the same time allowing the distribution of Positional Ratings of the players on the field to determine who actually makes a given play after an out is calculated. Team's with higher sum DER will help their pitchers turn more balls in play into outs. With this system it wll now be possible to field quality teams based around pitching and defense in historicals with only 1 extra multiplication factor added into the equation of BABIP for each hitter. This is DIPS at it's best in historicals since pitchers don't control BABIP - the hitters and the team defense do. If a player is playing out-of-position and therefore does not have a Positional Rating to translate back into a Modified Range Factor, assume these Modified Range Factors for the out-of-position: P: 1.36 C: 5.43 1B: 7.60 2B: 4.21 3B: 2.14 SS: 3.86 LF: 1.51 CF: 1.95 RF: 1.60 A team with all of their players out-of-position would end up increasing opponent batting average by 25%.