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Johnson, Bedard, Washburn, and Big Games Baby | Seattle Sports Insider


Great article about catching influence and CERA based off of the Seattle Mariner's season, in which Rob Johnson got many starts over Kenji Johjima even when they were both healthy.

(7/7/2009) Right now, Rob Johnson's CERA is 2.80, and Kenji Johjima's is 4.93. Those numbers are NOT happening in a vacuum, but if they were, our reaction would still be, "Let's investigate that further."

When we did, we would find that (1) in 2008, CERA's did not reflect the same thing, since Johjima's CERA was a little (.2 to .4 runs) *better* than everybody else's; (2) in 2007, Johjima's CERA was far (1.2 runs) worse than everybody else's; (3) in 2006, Johjima's CERA was far (1.2 runs) worse than the backup's; over his career, Johjima's CERA has been about 1 run worse than his backup's.

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The 4-year numbers don't occur in a vacuum, either. The pitchers on the field have routinely told us that they pitch much better when catchers other than Johjima are behind the plate.

This is like a tennis player telling us repeatedly that that he doesn't play well on grass, and then our checking the numbers and finding out he is in fact lifetime .850 on clay and .490 on grass. At that point, if I keep ignoring the player's OWN reports of why he plays lousy on grass, it is ME being Neanderthal, not the player. At that point, I need to just stop, and ask that tennis player exactly WHY he loses on grass.

The pitchers tell us that Johjima doesn't call pitches to their strengths. Johjima tells us that he calls pitches to the batters' weaknesses. This is the disconnect.

I'm heavy into game theory, and I believe that a Master Of The Game BECOMES GOOD ENOUGH that he is comfortable tailoring his attack to the opponent's weaknesses. I think that this defines mastery -- that you have all weapons at your disposal and you tailor them to the fluid circumstances emerging.

American pitchers do not pitch that way; in this sense they are less accomplished than Japanese pitchers. But Johjima's attempts to adjust have been disastrous. They would be for me, too. If I tried to awkwardly start adjusting my chess, or aikido, attacks based on what I like to do, as opposed to "echoing" my opponent's mistakes, I would play terribly. Johjima calls pitches terribly, because ignoring the batter is extremely awkward for him.

Greg Maddux and Jamie Moyer pitch the "Japanese", or Game Master, way. If Johjima called pitches for them, they would probably love him.

And we're not trying to disrespect American pitchers. Felix pitches in a "devolved" way, throwing what he wants to throw, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't beat Team Japan. He probably would. Mike Tyson and George Foreman dictated the fight to their opponents. I'm not saying that you can't play that way.

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As I've said before, I don't suspect this is fundamentally Johjima's fault. I think it's fundamentally everybody else's fault. That's a silly thing to say, but it's occasionally a TRUE silly thing to say. Check Johjima's CERA in the WBCs that Japan always wins.

As San-Man notes, sometimes it's not a manager's fault that a clubhouse quit; it's 25 players' fault. The logical, and sad, thing to do is to change the manager.

I think that Johjima is, in a very real sense, too highly evolved to catch in America. But that comes down to the same thing: he should leave America, and go catch in Japan where he is appreciated.

As you know, we mean it benevolently.