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Noticing a small nuance here. James is using league average K-rate as his basis for most of this. The 4.5, 4.6, 4.7 K/9 number (or whatever) is probably too proscriptive. I wouldn't get too caught up in an exact number. The learning is about what kinds of pitchers project to have longer careers or shorter careers, not specifically where you draw the line.
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