Quote:
Originally Posted by jbergey22
League Average is 60 percent of going for it on 4th and 2. Colts had a 53 percent chance of scoring a TD from the Pats 28 while they had a 30 percent chance of scoring a TD from their own 30. These arent numbers I made up. They are league averages.
Given the Colts and Pats have better than average offenses it makes the case that much stronger to go for it and try to keep the ball out of their hands.
Going for it= (0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 Win Percentage
Punting= 30 percent chance is league average of teams scoring from their own 30 = 0.70 Win Percentage
.60 is the league average of converting the 4th and 2.....40 is the league average of the failed 4 &2, .53 is the percent that teams score from the other teams 28.
Its simple math on why is was the smart play.
NFL Coaches are conservative by nature and that would explain why so many of them get fired while aggressive coaches like Bellichek and Parcells seem to do quite well for themselves.
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Again how many were 4th and 2 on the 28? Big difference between going for it at the 50 instead of the 28. Seems to me that losing coaches would tend more to gamble because what do they have to lose? Bottom line is that it didnt work so if Bellichek gets the praise when it works then he deserves the blame when it fails and last i checked the play failed.