Quote:
Originally Posted by crackpott
The difference in going for it at the 28 vs. the 50 only affects the odds of the other team scoring if you don't make it. It's been accounted for.
Further, there's no reason he should get blame for making the correct decision just because it didn't work out. If you're playing blackjack and you stand on 20 on the dealer's 15, and the dealer draws a 6, you don't deserve blame, you just got unlucky when making the correct decision.
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How can you account for something that has rarely happened? Show me a 79% chance of teams winning when they go for it from their own 30yd line or less. I doubt you can because it just doesnt happen that often unless a team is losing. But when a team is winning i doubt if you will find many attempts. As far as i know its 0-1 because i dont know or remember any other coach making such a bonehead call. Gutsy call yes but still wrong.
I would rather have the odds of a team going 70 yards than 28. If you cant trust your defense to stop an opposing qb from going 70 yards then it might be time for a new coach or a new defense. If going for it is the right thing to do then why wait till the last series. Why not do it all the time? You cant always rely on stats. You can give me a pctg but are you taking into account
when a sorry team is trying to stop a great team? Or when a sorry team goes for it on 4th? Is it still a 79% chance when 2 evenly matched teams are playing? If it was the right thing to do then NFL coaches would have figured it out a long long time ago. But the NFL isnt Madden football.
Does Belichek get praise whne he makes a bad call that works. Or is just considered luck? I can agree with the blackjack call but the 4th and 2 is merely your opinion that it was the right call.
Theres a lot more people that would disagree than with the blackjack call.