Over at FOFC, there was an interesting discussion about the new "poise" rating, and its effects. I, being a die-hard statheadz, find this to be as believable as "clutch" hitters or "proven" veterans. One example often cited there (and elsewhere) is the erstwhile Jaime Moyer- that somehow, his poise helped him through. To whit, I did a little quick and dirty study on Moyer.
Code:
IP BB/9 K/9 K/BB HR/9 ERA+
1986 87.3 4.33 4.64 1.07 1.03 80
1987 202 4.32 5.66 1.31 1.25 84
1988 201 2.46 5.42 2.20 0.90 104
1989 76 3.91 5.21 1.33 1.18 82
1990 102.3 3.43 5.10 1.49 0.53 84
1991 31.3 4.60 5.75 1.25 1.44 65
1993 152 2.25 5.33 2.37 0.65 129
1994 149 2.30 5.26 2.29 1.39 105
1995 115.7 2.33 5.06 2.17 1.40 94
1996 160.7 2.58 4.42 1.72 1.29 127
1997 188.7 2.05 5.39 2.63 1.00 117
1998 234.3 1.61 6.07 3.76 0.88 132
1999 228 1.89 5.41 2.85 0.91 130
2000 154 3.10 5.73 1.85 1.29 83
2001 209 1.89 5.12 2.70 1.03 127
2002 230.7 1.95 5.73 2.94 1.09 123
2003 215 2.76 5.40 1.95 0.80 136
Correlation to ERA+
BB/9 -0.841
K/9 0.018
K/BB 0.759
HR/9 -0.416
Moyer's success is pretty clearly most correlated with his BB/9 rate, and to a lesser degree with his K/BB ratio - not his "poise". He learnt to better control his pitches, and how to better use them- if you have a 65mph changeup, a 83MPH fastball is plenty fast. Years such as the last one are more likely to be exceptions, and one should expect a Moyer decline, aided by the loss of Cameron - if his K/BB ratio is under 2 again, odds are that his ERA will be over 4.
The greater point is to the idea of the poise rating- it seems to be a scary regression towards things like clutch hitting, myths that have been deconstructed again and again. OOTP 6 looks to be a huge step forward in terms of the game engine- ratings like this however, seem to be a step back.