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Originally posted by gmo
There's this by Tippett. From the in-OOTP perspective, it takes the side essentially favoring a small modifier. But I think it shows that in general the applicability DIPS in not dependent on the timeframe, at least since WWI.
This is a very good article and tends to agree far more than disagree with my feelings on this. Thank you for pointing it out. it says that while there is some vaidity to DIPS theory:
"Charlie Hough has prevented more hits on balls in play than any other pitcher in our study, and our sample includes the last ninety years, so we've covered most of baseball history. Compared with the league-average pitcher, Hough has allowed 371 fewer hits on balls in play. Compared with his teammates, that figure drops to 299 hits, suggesting that his parks and defenses deserve some of the credit.
How important is 299 hits? Hough would have given up an extra run every three games or so if he had allowed hits on balls in play at the same rate as his teammates over the course of his career. That's a pretty big deal."
Hough being an example,he sites many others. I'm not sure if it totally establishes that DIPS can equally be applied to every era equally since it seems to be comparing pitchers to their league and team-mates more than say comparing Pedro Martinez to Walter Johnson.
But the most important thing is that the author establishes that there is a statistically significant difference between rates of BABIP and pitchers with long successful careers have lower rates than the average pitcher even the pitchers on their team *with the same defense behind them).
It isn't the whole idea of DIPS that I have a problem with. Pitchers who strike people out a lot and don't walk many people and don't give up many homers and have a great defense playing behind them obviously have an advantage especially in a modern context. It's people who go to the extreme of saying that there is absolutely no ability (or a very insignificant ability) of the pitcher to prevent balls in play independant of the defense that I disagree with and I think Mr. Tippet has done a much better job than I could of proving that assertion false in the above article.
I'll concede that the new system with a BABIP rating for each pitcher would probably be more accurate than the old system but I'll settle for one or the other
