</font><blockquote><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><hr /><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Originally posted by mtw:
<strong>Here's where the problem with Bill James concepts, such as Win Shares: there are just too many factors to consider. On a team composed of entirely of right-handed flyball pitchers, a shortstop's value would be less than on team of all left-handed groundball pitchers. Also, how good are a team's pitchers at holding runners? That would affect a catcher's ability to prevent steal attempts and throw out basestealers. Also, a good defensive catcher not only throws runners out, he prevents them from running in the first place. What's the value of that, and how does it relate to the frequency of steal attempts if that team had an average catcher or if the pitchers were terrible at holding runners? Also a good defensive catcher can prevent wild pitches and passed balls. What's the value of these "non-events" and how much less valuable is a catcher, if at all, if the pitchers have great control? What value on an OF throw to the right base, or hitting the cutoff man, to prevent runners from advancing?
How much impact do these "non-stats" have on a game's outcome?
Can Bill James tell me?
</strong></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Arial">Yes. Have you read Win Shares? All of the factors you list are taken into account in his system.
This isn't some 5 line formula we're talking about here. The formula itself takes up pages 1 to 77 in the book, and makes adjustments for everything that it is possible to adjust for.
Team has a lot of left handed pitchers? The system assumes your third baseman should receive more chances and your first baseman should receive fewer independent chances. A lot of flyball pitchers? Adjusts for that too. A first baseman who prefers to flip to the pitcher instead of just tagging the base himself, making his stats look more impressive? Adjusts for that too. A catcher who plays a lot of innings and allows fewer stolen bases than he would be expected to allow? Adjusts for that. A team with a groundball staff should have how many double plays assuming a certain number of balls were put in play against the pitcher? Adjusts for that.
Jason