Late Round Picks

swishbish33 · 02-01-2007, 03:05 PM

It seemed in the 2006 version that only top picks ever turned into star players. Is the prospect development system going to be more similar to 6.5, where a couple big potential jumps could turn a late round pick into a stud? Or is it possible for a late round pick to fool everyone and become great or even just pretty good?

Thanks Markus!

SSG Troyer · 02-01-2007, 03:11 PM

I lifted this from the beta boards:

Code:

Hall of Fame by Round:

	Big B.	Draft	% Draft
1	9	49	59.8%
2	1	5	6.1%
3	0	5	6.1%
4	0	4	4.9%
5	0	3	3.7%
6	2	1	1.2%
7	0	3	3.7%
8	0	0	0.0%
9	0	0	0.0%
10	1	3	3.7%
11	0	1	1.2%
12	0	2	2.4%
13	0	0	0.0%
14	0	2	2.4%
15	0	0	0.0%
16	0	0	0.0%
17	0	0	0.0%
18	0	0	0.0%
19	0	2	2.4%
20	0	0	0.0%
21	0	1	1.2%
22	0	0	0.0%
23	0	0	0.0%
24	0	1	1.2%
25	0	0	0.0%
Total	13	82	

Note: 1 Big Bang draftee HoFer came from the 31st round.

note: this was from an old build, not the current one ...

Caporegime · 02-01-2007, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SSG Troyer

I lifted this from the beta boards:

Code:

Hall of Fame by Round:
 
    Big B.    Draft    % Draft
1    9    49    59.8%
2    1    5    6.1%
3    0    5    6.1%
4    0    4    4.9%
5    0    3    3.7%
6    2    1    1.2%
7    0    3    3.7%
8    0    0    0.0%
9    0    0    0.0%
10    1    3    3.7%
11    0    1    1.2%
12    0    2    2.4%
13    0    0    0.0%
14    0    2    2.4%
15    0    0    0.0%
16    0    0    0.0%
17    0    0    0.0%
18    0    0    0.0%
19    0    2    2.4%
20    0    0    0.0%
21    0    1    1.2%
22    0    0    0.0%
23    0    0    0.0%
24    0    1    1.2%
25    0    0    0.0%
Total    13    82    
 
Note: 1 Big Bang draftee HoFer came from the 31st round.

note: this was from an old build, not the current one ...

Awesome stuff, Troy. <ST1

</ST1

Thanks for posting it.<O

</O

<O

</O

I wonder how those numbers stack up against the actual history of MLB's amateur draft? I wasn't able to find a percentage of HoF'ers by round selection, just the percentage of players by round who eventually made it to the big leagues.

Curtis · 02-01-2007, 03:27 PM

Most members of the real life Hall of Fame are from the pre-draft era. I'd think that the relevent sample size would be too small to be useful.

1998 Yankees · 02-01-2007, 05:52 PM

So I gather that it seems reasonable that 60% of future HoF'ers come from round one draft choices, another 25% from rounds 2-7, and 15% from all other rounds, including the occasional "out of nowhere" guy. This is an improvement on what was occurring in the past, I also surmise. Correct?

SSG Troyer · 02-01-2007, 06:08 PM

From my understanding ... though I disliked v2006 so much I never really looked at it that deep ...

BTW, I like 2007 much more ...

swishbish33 · 02-02-2007, 01:08 AM

I was mostly asking to see if late round picks became good players. In 2006 you could pull a serviceable guy out of the 6th - 10th round, but he wasn't anything more than a role player most of the time. It wasn't absolute, but rather a general trend. It would be cool if you could draft a guy for his defense, for instance, in the late rounds, and have him develop a bat out of nowhere. It seemed in 6.5 that that was a possiblity. Talent jumps seemed to happen more frequently in 6.5...

PotatoPeeler · 02-02-2007, 01:13 AM

Could someone explain the chart SSG Troyer posted. I don't get it.

Matter2003 · 02-02-2007, 02:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swishbish33

I was mostly asking to see if late round picks became good players. In 2006 you could pull a serviceable guy out of the 6th - 10th round, but he wasn't anything more than a role player most of the time. It wasn't absolute, but rather a general trend. It would be cool if you could draft a guy for his defense, for instance, in the late rounds, and have him develop a bat out of nowhere. It seemed in 6.5 that that was a possiblity. Talent jumps seemed to happen more frequently in 6.5...

Yes it is very possible in 2007---Here are some players off my leaderboards at the end of the year in 2020:

Code:

Round	Pick	Draft	AS Games
5	150	2009	3
2	43	2013	1
1	28	2016	2
1	12	2013	3
1	2	2008	7
9	258	2010	2
18	535	2012	3
1	2	2016	3
2	44	2013	1
1	5	2011	4
3	68	2015	4
1	2	2017	2
1	1	2010	4
1	3	2014	2
1	14	2016	2
1	24	2014	5
6	177	2011	5
1	16	2015	2
1	16	2013	1
10	274	2007	5
1	3	2015	2
1	13	2015	0
12	339	2010	4
1	26	2012	3
1	4	2015	3
3	73	2015	2
1	11	2015	1
7	186	2012	3
2	40	2008	2
2	51	2008	1
2	46	2008	7
19	560	2011	2
1	4	2010	6
8	231	2012	2
4	96	2012	3
1	4	2011	7
6	168	2014	1
136	4074	2007	4**
8	220	2013	1
2	52	2009	3
3	67	2011	1
167	5009	2007	8**
7	199	2012	0
4	109	2013	1
134	4020	2007	1**
5	130	2015	2
25	736    2012	0
2	32	2013	4
21	623    2014	4
8	220	2013	1
1	5	 2009	 4
21	612    2012	2
9	251	2011	3

**=Taken in the 2007 Inaugural Draft

As you can see, there are plenty of lower round picks that turned out to be pretty good players---and some really low picks in the 2007 inaugural draft that ended up being really good...

There has been tremendous improvement in this area...

swishbish33 · 02-02-2007, 05:25 AM

This is excellent news. It will make the game that much better...

Raidergoo · 02-02-2007, 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PotatoPeeler

Could someone explain the chart SSG Troyer posted. I don't get it.

Late round picks can and do develop into Hall of Fame level greats. Not often, but it happens often enough to keep you on your toes.

Big B. stand for the "Big Bang" IE the initial fictional player draft on the chart.

PotatoPeeler · 02-02-2007, 08:30 AM

Thanks, but it still doesn't make any sense to me. I are dumb, I guess.

jarmenia · 02-02-2007, 09:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PotatoPeeler

Thanks, but it still doesn't make any sense to me. I are dumb, I guess.

Its the number of players in the HOF sorted by their draft round.

battists · 02-02-2007, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PotatoPeeler

Thanks, but it still doesn't make any sense to me. I are dumb, I guess.

Non stat-geek version:

"In 2007, it's more likely for lower-round draft picks to do well than it was in 2006, and the numbers back that up."

edit: oops, well, jarmenia kinda beat me to the punch

RonCo · 02-02-2007, 10:14 AM

I'm not sure how much data we're supposed to post here--but that chart was one of mine, and since it's out here...

It's a list of HoF players by draft round. B.Bang is by round of initial creation draft, and "Draft" is by round of players drafted after the initial league creation. The % column is the percentage of players from that round (post-creation) who made the HoF.

The data comes from a fictional league, run on full majors/minors with "out of the box "defaults--no tweaking of development modifiers or whatnot.

The numbers are reasonable when you compare them to the current MLB Hall of Fame. The problem with that, however, is that the sample size of the real Hall of Fame is very small--most players who are in there were not actually drafted. I would personally like to see the 60% number be more like 40-50%, and rounds 2-3 bumped a little. But that's a subjective call, and quite honestly, some leagues I've tested have had better results...as noted, that data is from an older build, and Markus has been making development improvements each build since.

As far as: "do good players come from later rounds?" The answer is yes. I run career length tests on each build and compare them to careers of MLB players drafted in 1989 and 1990. The profiles compare well. There will always be some differences. Afterall, MLB has 50+ rounds, and they also sign players directly as free agents. They also have guys opt not to sign then get drafted earlier, which muddies the baseline data. But overall, the quality of the OOTP draft is greatly improved in the current v2007 builds. I ran these same kinds of tests on v2006 back in the day, too, so I've got that baseline to make my comments from.

02-01-2007, 03:05 PM	#1 (permalink)
swishbish33 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 117	Late Round Picks It seemed in the 2006 version that only top picks ever turned into star players. Is the prospect development system going to be more similar to 6.5, where a couple big potential jumps could turn a late round pick into a stud? Or is it possible for a late round pick to fool everyone and become great or even just pretty good? Thanks Markus!

02-01-2007, 03:27 PM	#4 (permalink)
Curtis Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Watertown, New York Posts: 4,530 Thanked 108x in 91 posts	Most members of the real life Hall of Fame are from the pre-draft era. I'd think that the relevent sample size would be too small to be useful. __________________ 2012 — The year for Inside The Park 2!

02-01-2007, 05:52 PM	#5 (permalink)
1998 Yankees Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2006 Location: Yankee Stadium, back in 1998. Posts: 8,020 Thanked 525x in 353 posts	So I gather that it seems reasonable that 60% of future HoF'ers come from round one draft choices, another 25% from rounds 2-7, and 15% from all other rounds, including the occasional "out of nowhere" guy. This is an improvement on what was occurring in the past, I also surmise. Correct? __________________ The 1998 New York Yankees

02-01-2007, 06:08 PM	#6 (permalink)
SSG Troyer All Star Starter Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Somewhere to the left of 2nd base Posts: 1,583	From my understanding ... though I disliked v2006 so much I never really looked at it that deep ... BTW, I like 2007 much more ... __________________ MWT Did Tennesee Delaware Mississppi's New Jersey? Idaho ... Alaska!

02-02-2007, 01:13 AM	#8 (permalink)
PotatoPeeler Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Rapid City, SD Posts: 2,929 Thanked 17x in 15 posts	Could someone explain the chart SSG Troyer posted. I don't get it. __________________ 培傑西 I have never taken a lesson on how to talk on TV in my life. - Tim McCarver If you need a hand, sometimes the best place to look is at the end of your own arm.

02-02-2007, 01:08 AM	#7 (permalink)
swishbish33 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 117	I was mostly asking to see if late round picks became good players. In 2006 you could pull a serviceable guy out of the 6th - 10th round, but he wasn't anything more than a role player most of the time. It wasn't absolute, but rather a general trend. It would be cool if you could draft a guy for his defense, for instance, in the late rounds, and have him develop a bat out of nowhere. It seemed in 6.5 that that was a possiblity. Talent jumps seemed to happen more frequently in 6.5...

02-02-2007, 05:25 AM	#10 (permalink)
swishbish33 Minors (Double A) Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 117	This is excellent news. It will make the game that much better...

02-02-2007, 08:30 AM	#12 (permalink)
PotatoPeeler Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Rapid City, SD Posts: 2,929 Thanked 17x in 15 posts	Thanks, but it still doesn't make any sense to me. I are dumb, I guess. __________________ 培傑西 I have never taken a lesson on how to talk on TV in my life. - Tim McCarver If you need a hand, sometimes the best place to look is at the end of your own arm.

02-02-2007, 10:14 AM	#15 (permalink)
RonCo Hall Of Famer Join Date: Aug 2003 Posts: 6,566 Thanked 147x in 66 posts	I'm not sure how much data we're supposed to post here--but that chart was one of mine, and since it's out here... It's a list of HoF players by draft round. B.Bang is by round of initial creation draft, and "Draft" is by round of players drafted after the initial league creation. The % column is the percentage of players from that round (post-creation) who made the HoF. The data comes from a fictional league, run on full majors/minors with "out of the box "defaults--no tweaking of development modifiers or whatnot. The numbers are reasonable when you compare them to the current MLB Hall of Fame. The problem with that, however, is that the sample size of the real Hall of Fame is very small--most players who are in there were not actually drafted. I would personally like to see the 60% number be more like 40-50%, and rounds 2-3 bumped a little. But that's a subjective call, and quite honestly, some leagues I've tested have had better results...as noted, that data is from an older build, and Markus has been making development improvements each build since. As far as: "do good players come from later rounds?" The answer is yes. I run career length tests on each build and compare them to careers of MLB players drafted in 1989 and 1990. The profiles compare well. There will always be some differences. Afterall, MLB has 50+ rounds, and they also sign players directly as free agents. They also have guys opt not to sign then get drafted earlier, which muddies the baseline data. But overall, the quality of the OOTP draft is greatly improved in the current v2007 builds. I ran these same kinds of tests on v2006 back in the day, too, so I've got that baseline to make my comments from. Last edited by RonCo; 02-02-2007 at 10:15 AM.

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode