Proposed Fictional League Dev/Aging Modifiers

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by NomarHits400

I am a little confused by this. Setting the aging modifiers as above will cause players to age must faster, corect? This in turn, of course- will cause ratings to deteriorate quicker as well, correct? I assume that this is what accounts for the markedly increased attrition rates of a pitcher's stuff and therefore K rates (among other things)?

It also seems that with development speeds halved, that the AI may be forced to play some of these God-awful older players in the absence of good young talent coming up through the ranks as fast as normal. This seems problematic on the face of it to me.

Are any of my assumptions above logical? I assume these aggressive settings were put in place because players were peaking too soon and/or playing too long...Is that correct?

The Development Modifier influences how fast or slow a player reaches his peak. The Aging Modifier influences how fast or slow a player drops off. It can be fairly complex to think about on a skill-by-skill basis, and unfortunately we get only a macro "pitcher" or "hitter" toggle that influences all ratings for the player type.

I selected to develop players more slowly because I was seeing both pitchers and hitters peak far too soon (ages 23-25 rather than 27-29), as experienced in game, and "proven" via my Tango comparison.

I selected to age players more quickly because I was seening them hold on too long, and because the Tango study showed they needed it to model major league careers better. Yes, some of the issue with Ks falling too soon are aggravated because I increased aging. But if you look at the charts in my report, you'll see this is due to the fundamental curve OOTP is using. It drops off too fast after age 37, meaning you can either set it so that you mid-range is too high, but old pitchers hold on properly, or you can set it so that the aging curve is "right" until age 37, but falls off after that. Given that there are more pitchers in the mid-range ages, I chose to make that part right at the expense of the older pitchers.

Ultimately, given the game's approach to development, each setting is a trade-off of some sort.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by GBS

So RonCo, I just started a new fictional league. Do you suggest that I try the modifiers mentioned at the top of this thread, to add realism of course?

I would suggest my modifiers with an AI modifier you're comnfortable with based on the above.

[GBS]

Earlier in this thread there is mention of 60, 30, 8, 2. Is this refering to the way the AI values players in the game with 60 being ratings with the others being last year, year before etc.?

[SkyDog]

Ron, did you happen to compare stats using the AI adjustments to those unadjusted? I ask because offense decreased when I used 58/37/4/1 in my latest attempt. I wouldn't be surprised at all to learn that increasing the ratings weight is more important to pitching than hitting. Anecdotally, I wasn't seeing the problems with old batters who suck playing too long, so this would make sense.

[RonCo]

I didn't see anything alarming, but I was focusing on leaderboards and HoF careers. I'll see if I can take a look at season-wide variance later tonight if I get a chance.

[akw4572]

I'm running a test sim using Skydog's fictional template, and RonCo.'s development curve spanning 100 years. I've gotten through 40 years since 8:30 this morning. Hoping to have some results tonight.

[NomarHits400]

Originally Posted by RonCo

The Development Modifier influences how fast or slow a player reaches his peak. The Aging Modifier influences how fast or slow a player drops off. It can be fairly complex to think about on a skill-by-skill basis, and unfortunately we get only a macro "pitcher" or "hitter" toggle that influences all ratings for the player type.

I selected to develop players more slowly because I was seeing both pitchers and hitters peak far too soon (ages 23-25 rather than 27-29), as experienced in game, and "proven" via my Tango comparison.

I selected to age players more quickly because I was seening them hold on too long, and because the Tango study showed they needed it to model major league careers better. Yes, some of the issue with Ks falling too soon are aggravated because I increased aging. But if you look at the charts in my report, you'll see this is due to the fundamental curve OOTP is using. It drops off too fast after age 37, meaning you can either set it so that you mid-range is too high, but old pitchers hold on properly, or you can set it so that the aging curve is "right" until age 37, but falls off after that. Given that there are more pitchers in the mid-range ages, I chose to make that part right at the expense of the older pitchers.

Ultimately, given the game's approach to development, each setting is a trade-off of some sort.

I understand now - thanks for taking the time to explain.

[SkyDog]

Originally Posted by RonCo

I didn't see anything alarming, but I was focusing on leaderboards and HoF careers. I'll see if I can take a look at season-wide variance later tonight if I get a chance.

It wasn't a massive dropoff, just enough for me to notice. League batting average went from .2601 over a 100-year career to .2529.

[akw4572]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

Ron, did you happen to compare stats using the AI adjustments to those unadjusted? I ask because offense decreased when I used 58/37/4/1 in my latest attempt. I wouldn't be surprised at all to learn that increasing the ratings weight is more important to pitching than hitting. Anecdotally, I wasn't seeing the problems with old batters who suck playing too long, so this would make sense.

My 100 year sim, ran with RonCo's aging modifiers with Skydog's fictional league showed some pretty significant decreasing in overall league average and ERA. My AI settings were on 50-30-15-5.

[akw4572]

How do you guys get total league averages so quick? Is there a way to do a total data run, then average it?

[highandoutside]

Originally Posted by akw4572

My 100 year sim, ran with RonCo's aging modifiers with Skydog's fictional league showed some pretty significant decreasing in overall league average and ERA. My AI settings were on 50-30-15-5.

So it appears we have a trade off. If you want players to age correctly, then Skydogs settings should be avoided because of the drop-off in offense. If you don't use skydogs settings will statistics remain stable and close to realistic?

[SkyDog]

I'm working on a way to have both, actually. It shouldn't be terribly difficult.

[highandoutside]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

I'm working on a way to have both, actually. It shouldn't be terribly difficult.

Excellent to hear...thanks.

[SkyDog]

I'm seeing an extremely significant change in statistical output over the first 20ish years of a career now, perhaps due to some other settings I'm using. I can handle this via simming 25 seasons and then deleting stats and then creating a Quick Start. It's quite pronounced, though.

[discodude5]

RonCo what league total modifiers are you using?

In the 2 test leagues I tried with your aging/dev modifiers 1 with default league total mod settings the other with skydog's settings both gave me 1988 numbers the first couple years then the offence dried up. Both had the batting avg drop from around .265 to .245 by year 4 and then it never recovered.
In other test leagues with just skydog's settings the numbers stayed consistent throughout.

[SkyDog]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

I'm seeing an extremely significant change in statistical output over the first 20ish years of a career now, perhaps due to some other settings I'm using. I can handle this via simming 25 seasons and then deleting stats and then creating a Quick Start. It's quite pronounced, though.

Originally Posted by discodude5

RonCo what league total modifiers are you using?

In the 2 test leagues I tried with your aging/dev modifiers 1 with default league total mod settings the other with skydog's settings both gave me 1988 numbers the first couple years then the offence dried up. Both had the batting avg drop from around .265 to .245 by year 4 and then it never recovered.
In other test leagues with just skydog's settings the numbers stayed consistent throughout.

This is exactly what I was talking about. I'm no sure what's causing it, but it's fairly easy to fix. I'm just simming 30 years and deleting all history, and then tweaking my settings based on year 31 on. Once I get the numbers nailed down (probably in the next 48 hours), I'll release a new Quick Start that has been "pre-simmed" for 30 years, but that history deleted. That way you'll get static numbers the rest of the way.

[SkyDog]

In the run I just did, I'm not seeing the offensive changes now. The only setting I changed besides some tweaks to modifiers was that I moved injuries from low to normal. Could *that* be it???

[akw4572]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

In the run I just did, I'm not seeing the offensive changes now. The only setting I changed besides some tweaks to modifiers was that I moved injuries from low to normal. Could *that* be it???

The 100 year test league I ran, the injury was set on "low", and the numbers came down offensively with RonCo's. settings.

[RonCo]

Interesting. Here are my batting averages for the test league I last ran. You can see that both leagues had quite a bit of variance over the years.

[SkyDog]

What about OPS?