Absolutely, Utterly Rediculous !

[OldFatGuy]

I made a form in excel to keep track of my players ratings from month to month since my head scout gives a new report every month. I've started 5 leagues and for various reasons have started over and this is my first time reaching a second season (I play out all so time goes slow).

Well, I don't use minors, I have a reserve roster. 22 players on my reserve roster. ALMOST EVERY SINGLE ONE UNDER THE AGE OF 22 SAW THEIR POTENTIAL RATINGS DRASTICALLY DROP FROM THE END OF LAST SEASON TO THIS SEASON. ALMOST EVERY ONE.

There were a couple that didn't change, and NONE IMPROVED, even slightly. This is an absolute joke. Man, my love affair with OOTP is starting to run its course, because this is absurd.

I love random changes. Gotta have em to be fun. But WTF when EVERY ONE OF THEM IS DRASTICALLY DOWN?? Where is the talent going to be in 10 years???? I now have a reserve roster full of guys that I might as well release, including all of last year's draft class. What's the point of a draft????

I have all settings on default, and it's not a scouting issue because I have the SAME scout and his ratings are the SAME.

Is this the way OOTP player development is or have I just magically stumbled upon the one and only ever created team that sees ALL TALENT DROPS AND NO TALENT INCREASES??

[endgame]

Understandably, you're frustrated. But before you overreact (hey, I saw that finger! ), let's agree that there is at least some possibility that this could occur in RL. How? What about coach quality? What about the actual talent potential of these players? Was each one of the a potential star? Were some? Is there any possibiity -and I have to believe there is- that some may regain those losses through the same random forces? What is drastic? Actual rating drops? Potential drops? Were they all PO'd? I'm looking for any constant that they might all share first. But let's ask some questions and look at the picture a little closer before we chase down the artist and burn him at the stake.

I do see the CAPS indicating they were TALENT drops, but were actuals affected at all? By how much? Did your scouting change? What quality is your scout? Do you have one? Sorry, OFG. Not trying to be annoying. Just looking for something to go on. It could be that the reserve roster isn't developing like it should. We don't know right now.

If you've looked at it monthly, was it all during the same month? Was it gradual for all of them? Were there ups and downs, culminating in the extreme down across the board? I'd go to that tracking medium and see if there are any trends there that might give us a clue on what to look at as problem (although you've pretty well defined it) or cause.

Hang in there. You've too great a passion not to sink your teeth into the cause or the cure.

[OldFatGuy]

Well, here are my personnel. They're the same as last year except for the bottom two scouts. They aren't the greatest personnel ever in OOTP I imagine, but I'm also sure they aren't the worst either. If these drops are from these coaches, then the coaching algorithms are broken.

As to your other questions, I'll post a list of my entire reserve roster with ratings from the same scout as of Dec 1st, and then as of Feb 1st. And yes, they are all Very Unhappy or Angry. IF this is the problem, then THAT part of the game is broken too. An angry player may demand to be traded or never resign with a ballclub, but no young player who's angry is just going to tank his career because he's angry.

[OldFatGuy]

Here are the players under the age of 25 on my reserve roster. Unfortunately, I don't know how to make the columns line up, so I guess this is not much good. But if I counted right, 11 of the 15 had significant drops in their potentials, while 4 were basically unchanged. If someone can tell me how to make the excel columns lineup on this post, I'll try but I can't figure it out.

EDIT: And BTW, to answer your question about trends, all of these players basically stayed the same every month in 1901 that I recorded (some were late additions, draft occurred in June). When I made my form for keeping track, I found if I elminated one month I could fit 4 seasons on 1 page. So I elimintated January. So these changes occurred all at once sometime between Dec 1st and Feb 1st.

Stf Mvt Con S-Pot M-Pot C-Pot Age
Aaron Camp - Dec 1 8 6 14 8 6 14 24
Aaron Camp - Feb 1 9 6 14 9 6 14
Juan Castro - Dec 1 8 15 12 8 15 15 20
Juan Castro - Feb 1 7 15 12 7 15 12
John Green - Dec 1 7 1 1 13 9 9 20
John Green - Feb 1 7 2 1 9 5 5
Greg Johnson - Dec 1 7 6 5 13 15 16 19
Greg Johnson - Feb 1 7 6 5 8 12 10
Bruce Steele - Dec 1 5 5 12 11 17 20 20
Bruce Steele - Feb 1 5 5 11 9 12 17
Raul Trujillo - Dec 1 9 12 12 9 12 14 22
Raul Trujillo - Feb 1 9 13 12 9 13 14
Hector Martinez - Dec 1 6 6 4 12 14 15 18
Hector Martinez - Feb 1 7 6 4 12 14 15
Bob Reese - Dec 1 9 11 2 12 15 14 19
Bob Reese - Feb 1 9 10 3 12 11 10
Angel Rodriguez - Dec 1 5 3 2 9 13 13 21
Angel Rodriguez - Feb 1 6 2 1 6 8 9
Bobby McCarty - Dec 1 4 5 1 11 15 13 22
Bobby McCarty - Feb 1 4 5 2 6 13 9
Cnt Gap HR E/D A/K C-Pot G-Pot HR-Pot E/D-Pot A/K - Pot Age
C - Nick Gunn - Dec 1 6 5 3 5 2 10 13 10 13 11 20
C - Nick Gunn - Feb 1 6 6 4 5 1 7 10 6 9 3
1B - Cristian Cortez - Dec 1 11 13 6 8 9 15 17 11 11 14 20
1B - Cristian Cortez - Feb 1 10 13 7 8 8 10 13 7 8 8
3B - Claudio Gutierrez - Dec 1 9 13 7 7 8 14 17 13 12 9 21
3B - Claudio Gutierrez - Feb 1 10 13 8 7 7 10 13 9 9 7
LF - Dave Tomlinson - Dec 1 7 3 3 3 2 10 14 9 9 9 19
LF - Dave Tomlinson - Feb 1 7 2 3 3 2 10 12 10 9 9
RF - Jesus Sierra - Dec 1 10 10 8 8 6 14 14 13 12 10 20
RF - Jesus Sierra - Feb 1 11 11 9 9 6 11 11 9 9 6

[endgame]

I'll just add this while it's fresh on my mind, but have no idea whether it has any bearing or how it works. In a scouting league, scout's learn just like player's seemingly change. While you did indicate your scout was the same one, but did his ratings change? Is it a possibility his evaluations are changing; becoming more accurate, and giving the appearance the player's themselves are undergoing changes. As I think about it, in a scouting league, unless we can verify a scout's actual rating change, how would we be sure of the difference? The fact that this occurs at year end makes me wonder if it's a trigger date for eval changes beyond that of a player.

[jmknpk2]

I have played many leagues that progress quickly through the years now. I expect that most of the draftees from last year lose their good ratings. So when I drafted them they looked real good, but come next year their ratings mostly look worthless. Only a few of the players from the entire draft keep their good numbers.

One thing I have noticed however, is that a lot of times a player that had a big talent ratings drop, continues to put up good numbers. By the time he is in AAA, his actual ratings are up and he becomes a decent major leaguer.

On the other hand, some players that did not look to have good ratings in A will gradually improve and eventually end up with decent or even sometimes above average ratings.

I haven't played much with reserve roster, not sure if that works the same as minor leagues.

[OldFatGuy]

Well, my frustrations are obvious from the title and the original post. Thing is, I spent a great deal of 2006 and 2007 playing Civilization's 3 and 4. And my frustration level with that game got out of control because when you increased difficulty, the AI didn't get any harder, the AI simply cheated. And the higher the difficulty, the more the AI cheated. You were out produced at such a rate that as soon as war was declared the AI would overwhelm you with simple numbers. Not fun at all.

Then, I go through my very first offseason, and I'm writing down all the new ratings, and almost EVERY guy I click on shows significant potential drops, my old antenna shoots up immediately. My first thoughts are "here we go again." The AI can't compete so to overcome that weakness it cheats and the human player's player development is different (and harsher) than the AI teams' players.

And I'm still NOT convinced that that isn't what's going on here. I mean ALMOST EVERY GUY! I'm clicking and writing down the updated ratings, comparing them to the old ones, and I see DOWN. Click on the next guy, DOWN, Click on the next guy DOWN. You really start to believe that this is not chance but intentional, especially after my experience with the Civ series.

If the exact same thing happens next year, then anyone is going to have a hard time convincing me of anything other than it's a designed outcome.

[lahoward]

i pretty much see the same in the prospects as jmknpk2 does. seems the quality draft picks take an early hit but go on to be decent major leaguers. i have had a lot of 2nd-6th rounders become studs throughout the years. but as in the real world there are so so many rookie busts so i have no problem with the current system.

[lahoward]

one other thing a lot of times i ask my head scouts opinion and he suggests some odd ball player that may be ranked 15 or so below what i have as the #1 ranked player . I believe the scouts use work ethic & leadership as rtgs in their anaylisis. i like to get the guys with 50+ work ethic.