Fundamental flaws... your chance to vent!

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by Mike Donlin

(1) There is a poor to nonexistent correlation between catcher arm and caught stealing %.

(2) The AI rarely claims any players from Waivers, even top prospects. It seems to only consider whether the player would make the 25 man roster, and not even then. In short, the human GM is allowed to pass too many good players through waivers, and this makes handling a 40-man roster easier than it is in reality.

There is actually a statistically significant correlation between catcher arm and % success. But the strength is moderate and the sample size is small enough that the correlation is not always obvious to the naked eye.

[Tycobbler]

I would just like to see OOTP handle the waiver claims process correctly for online play.

Waiver rule-


Any player under contract may be placed on waivers at any time. If a player is waived, any team may claim him. If more than one team claims the player from waivers, the team with the weakest record in the player's league gets preference. If no team in the player's league claims him, the claiming team with the weakest record in the other league gets preference. In the first month of the season, preference is determined using the previous year's standings.

That's how it should work. In it's current state it randomly assigns player(s) to teams that aren't of the highest priority, and GM's aren't getting messages about the claim. From what i am seeing, and the complaints i have read the waiver process is just plain broken.

[markprior22]

Originally Posted by Ktulu

Why not? If it was 5 righties in a row would it be an issue?

Just because it's not usually done in real life doesn't mean ootp should absolutely do the same.

1) Right handers are far more predominant in general so it isn't unusual for a lineup to be stacked with righties.

2) The lefty/lefty matchup seems to provide the biggest disadvantage for the batter. If teams don't do it IRL, there is typically a reason why. The exploit left for your opponent to start or bring in LH relief is just too large. Another post referenced the Dodgers...Eddie Murray was a switch hitter so he could break things up. Still not ideal, but I'm just saying to have 5 strictly LHB in a row should be an extremely rare occurrence.

Sorry to lose focus a little here but this is an issue I also mentioned earlier and think it (lineup structure) could use a little work.

[Malleus Dei]

Originally Posted by BostonRS14

even against a right-handed starter, a team shouldn't have 5 lefties stacked up like that.

Ya think?

ESPN.com Florida/St. Louis preview

"La Russa shook up the lineup a bit, batting Drew second and giving shortstop Edgar Renteria a rest in favor of Polanco. He also top-loaded the order with five straight left-handed batters."

[Malleus Dei]

Oh, and Tony LaRussa was the 1983 AL Manager of the Year, the 1988 AL Manager of the Year, the 1992 AL Manager of the Year, and the 2002 NL Manager of the Year, and is the third-most winning manager in MLB history, the sixth manager to win pennants in both the AL and the NL, the first manager ever to win more than one pennant in both the AL and the NL, and is one of the two managers to ever win a World Series in both the AL and the NL.

And he has stacked five lefties at the top of his lineup. Makes you think, eh?

[markprior22]

Yeah...the same guy whos bats the pitcher 8th. Maybe that would be a good idea to get into OOTP too. I'm not saying it should never happen...it should be extremely rare though and I see it from time to time in my league. A guy like Larussa might do this if the opposing team has one LH reliever and he is completely worn out. Convince me that OOTP "thinks" this deep and I'll hop on board. In my experience, when the AI does this, it gives me a huge advantage.

[Mike Donlin]

Originally Posted by RonCo

There is actually a statistically significant correlation between catcher arm and % success. But the strength is moderate and the sample size is small enough that the correlation is not always obvious to the naked eye.

I never get anything higher than a .2 or .3 r-squared. I should think it would be slightly higher.

[Elendil]

Originally Posted by Mike Donlin

I never get anything higher than a .2 or .3 r-squared. I should think it would be slightly higher.

This is tough, b/c there's no way to compare the OOTP correlation to a "real-life" one. Another difficulty is that teams should run less against strong-arm catchers, which will reduce the correlation (only the very best base stealers will run against strong-arm catchers). A game theorist might even argue that the correlation should be zero, if teams are behaving rationally in sending base stealers.

[RchW]

Originally Posted by markprior22

Yeah...the same guy whos bats the pitcher 8th. Maybe that would be a good idea to get into OOTP too. I'm not saying it should never happen...it should be extremely rare though and I see it from time to time in my league. A guy like Larussa might do this if the opposing team has one LH reliever and he is completely worn out. Convince me that OOTP "thinks" this deep and I'll hop on board. In my experience, when the AI does this, it gives me a huge advantage.

But does it qualify as a fundamental flaw?

Part of the cause may be too many LHB. I know this was a problem in v2006 but I haven't looked at it since. IRL I believe LHB are 23-24%; in OOTP it was 27%.

[RonCo]

Originally Posted by Elendil

This is tough, b/c there's no way to compare the OOTP correlation to a "real-life" one. Another difficulty is that teams should run less against strong-arm catchers, which will reduce the correlation (only the very best base stealers will run against strong-arm catchers). A game theorist might even argue that the correlation should be zero, if teams are behaving rationally in sending base stealers.

A better measure would be year-to-year varaince. My _belief_ is that catchers performance is too highly varied in OOTP, but realize the OOTP pitchers hold ratings do nothing to influence success rates (unlike real life, where this is a skill). So data is going to be hard to use to make any firm statement either way. At least year-to-year variance data exists, so a study could actually be done.

[Kelric]

Originally Posted by Elendil

FWIW, I prefer the new system. It's more realistic, creating a kind of "fog of war." Your advantage over the AI would be greatly increased if you could release or trade a young star the day after he took an unexpected, massive talent hit. I say leave detailed dev reports to the modders.

Or just make it an option. Smoother for online leagues rather than using a 3rd party utility that is unsupported by the developers and may or may not be supported by said 3rd party into the future.

[Ktulu]

In my experience, when the AI does this, it gives me a huge advantage.

How is it a huge advantage? You get to bring in your one qualtiy left handed reliever for 5 batters... whereas the 5 lefties in a row will probably get at least 2 or 3 ab's against your right handed starter. Seems to me any strategic bullpen advantage would be countered by the advantage of 5 lefties at the top of the order getting their maximum number of plate appearances against RH pitching. Also, chances are pretty good those 5 hitters are better than the alternative right handed hitters, especially matched up against a right handed pitcher.

I just don't see this as a fatal flaw, it may go against "old school" thinking but that's not always a bad thing

[teak88]

Should be a simple fix...

The minors should be "up or out" (at least through AAA). When a player goes up a level, he is expected to perform at that level. If he can't, he is released. The idea is to find Major Lg players; it's a jungle out there. You go up until you reach your level of incompetence.

Currently, when the AI senses a player should go up a level, it sends someone down. Thus, we have 31 yr old catchers (often w/ Majors experience) playing A ball. If an organization has too many catchers in the high minors it cuts some...and signs some new young ones

[markprior22]

Originally Posted by Ktulu

How is it a huge advantage? You get to bring in your one qualtiy left handed reliever for 5 batters... whereas the 5 lefties in a row will probably get at least 2 or 3 ab's against your right handed starter. Seems to me any strategic bullpen advantage would be countered by the advantage of 5 lefties at the top of the order getting their maximum number of plate appearances against RH pitching. Also, chances are pretty good those 5 hitters are better than the alternative right handed hitters, especially matched up against a right handed pitcher.

I just don't see this as a fatal flaw, it may go against "old school" thinking but that's not always a bad thing

It gives me an advantage because I always have 2 lefties in my bullpen and plan the usage (and my starters) based on upcoming teams unless something out of the norm takes place and makes me scrap that plan. I'll admit it's probably not a "fatal flaw" but OOTP doesn't "think" enough to use 5 straight LH batters like someone IRL would. One thing is for sure...it's not "old school" thinking. It's just the opposite as more and more platooning has been done in baseball over the years. I'm done...like I said...it's not a fatal flaw and I shouldn't have brought it up in that context.

[teak88]

Should be a simple fix...

There should a minor league DL (or other roster mechanism) to get injured players off the rosters. Currently, if playing w/ full rosters, injured players pile up on the roster and roster limits prevent the AI from replacing them. So, if one of the two catchers has a broken leg ("out for 4 mos"), the team is left w/ a single catcher doing 100% of the catching; likewise rotations become 2 or 3 SPs. Stats are out of whack; increased chance of injuries for over-loaded players; fewer players developing; etc

I've seen minor lg teams w/ 10-15 players "in red" at a time

[Ktulu]

By "old school" I meant the tendency in baseball to do things the way they've always been done without really thinking about it.

OOTP doesn't think like someone in real life would, that's true, but that doesn't automatically make the lineup selection wrong. What if the difference against LHP between the LHB and one or more of the RHB options is marginal at best? Should OOTP go with the righty just because 5 lefties in a row is "wrong".

And I still maintain that the advantage of bringing the lefty out of the pen would be off-set by at bats against the right handed starter. The first 5 innings are just as important as the last 4.

[teak88]

A simple fix (hope you don't consider this an enhancement rather than a fix, Marcus)...

Whenever a player is injured irl, even seriously, it is never reported as "career ending". I don't even think Joe Theissman's injury was reported that way. There is always the expectation that the player will come back; it may take surgery; it may take a year; but he will try to come back

This is human nature. The player realizes that he can't make $5 million a year selling shoes - and will try anything to get back. The team realizes that there aren't many people who can hit .250 off of ML pitching (or whatever) - and will try to get him back. The injury is only known as "career ending" a number of years later...for those who have failed to make it back.

The game should model this; ie, have serious injuries, but also have ways to ameliorate them: surgery, time, time in minors, pharmaceutical regimes, etc. Depending on the injury, the success rate may be very low(~5-10%), but this would add some interest

(an exception is mediocre minor leaguers, where the player wants to keep trying, but the team says Sayanara)

[injury log]

Originally Posted by teak88

A simple fix (hope you don't consider this an enhancement rather than a fix, Marcus)...

Whenever a player is injured irl, even seriously, it is never reported as "career ending". I don't even think Joe Theissman's injury was reported that way. There is always the expectation that the player will come back; it may take surgery; it may take a year; but he will try to come back

This is human nature. The player realizes that he can't make $5 million a year selling shoes - and will try anything to get back. The team realizes that there aren't many people who can hit .250 off of ML pitching (or whatever) - and will try to get him back. The injury is only known as "career ending" a number of years later...for those who have failed to make it back.

The game should model this; ie, have serious injuries, but also have ways to ameliorate them: surgery, time, time in minors, pharmaceutical regimes, etc. Depending on the injury, the success rate may be very low(~5-10%), but this would add some interest

(an exception is mediocre minor leaguers, where the player wants to keep trying, but the team says Sayanara)

This simply isn't true. Brian Anderson (the pitcher, not the outfielder) and Matt Mantei both suffered CEIs in Spring Training last year - both retired the day after suffering a serious arm injury. Juan Encarnacion's injury was obviously career ending when it happened. There are others. The frequency of CEIs is clearly too high in OOTP right now, but they shouldn't be eliminated altogether.

[injury log]

One thing I meant to add:

-get the balance of pitchers and hitters right on the BA top prospect lists. I'm just looking at a fictional league now, and looking at five teams' top 20 lists, I see 4 pitchers and 96 batters. In real life, the split would be more like 40 pitchers and 60 batters.

[MidKnight]

Originally Posted by injury log

One thing I meant to add:

-get the balance of pitchers and hitters right on the BA top prospect lists. I'm just looking at a fictional league now, and looking at five teams' top 20 lists, I see 4 pitchers and 96 batters. In real life, the split would be more like 40 pitchers and 60 batters.

Seconded; this has bugged me for a while. Reports value pitching prospects far less than they should.