Pickoffs at 1st base

jabrown6940 · 05-16-2009, 10:51 AM

Are there way too many pickoffs at 1st base? Are there any stats in the game that tracks this?

RchW · 05-16-2009, 11:15 AM

Impossible to answer. My impression is no, but you know the reliability of impressions without evidence.

What do you think?

TribeFanInNC · 05-16-2009, 11:21 AM

I've always thought there were too few. I've also thought that there should be rundown PbP to go along with it. A lot of pickoffs are rundowns.

jabrown6940 · 05-16-2009, 11:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RchW

My impression is no, but you know the reliability of impressions without evidence.

A simple NO to the question if the game tracked these stats would have done.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TribeFanInNC

I've always thought there were too few. I've also thought that there should be rundown PbP to go along with it. A lot of pickoffs are rundowns.

I just don't seem to see it happen much while watching Red Sox games. Maybe the Sox have extraordinary base runners and their pitchers don't know how to throw to 1st.

No, I don't have stats for that either.

SteveP · 05-16-2009, 01:05 PM

I've tracked this (collected data) and compared to real life game logs. OOTP gets this pretty accurately. It's one of those stats where you have to look at a lot of games to get useful results. One of the things that most gamers don't see (because they sim or use the other methods of speeding things up) is how often pitchers throw over the first. This is heavily influenced by the hold runners setting in team strategies, and to a small extent (I think) by the hold runner ratings of the pitchers and the ratings of catchers (for POs by the catchers).

So, you can get more or less PO attempts in a series of games than might occur IRL, which influences the number of successful attempts, and also the number of errors. At least from what I found, while one could quibble with the exact results, it isn't all that far off.

jabrown6940 · 05-16-2009, 01:26 PM

Thanks Steve

I probably think I'm seeing too many pickoffs 'cause I'm watching games PbP a dozen times in a row. When watching a real game once a day (falling asleep in the middle of it, doesn't help either) seeing successful pickoffs aren't as noticeable.

CRTsports.com · 05-16-2009, 03:21 PM

I would say no also. I play all my teams games out and its a rare for there to be a pickoff at first.

SteveP · 05-17-2009, 03:06 PM

I should have added that the game doesn't attempt to distinguish a successful PO where the runner is tagged at first, and the type of PO that results in a rundown. It would be cool if it did, but to some extent that is just cosmetics (that is, the runner is out either way, it's only a difference of who actually tagged him) unless the rundown situation allowed for alternative outcomes (for example, a throwing error). But that's a level of complexity the game hasn't gotten to (yet

)

StyxNCa · 05-18-2009, 10:16 PM

My pitchers can only PO guys on 2nd. They can never pull off a successful one at 1B. My guys can get PO at 1st though. My catcher has managed 4 PO's at 1B.

TribeFanInNC · 05-18-2009, 10:40 PM

I have picked off guys at first with my pitcher. It seems to mostly be with lefties. I get a handful a season if I play all the games.

StyxNCa · 05-18-2009, 10:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TribeFanInNC

I have picked off guys at first with my pitcher. It seems to mostly be with lefties. I get a handful a season if I play all the games.

Care to trade a pitcher or two?

Afino · 05-18-2009, 11:47 PM

I've never been able to do it with my pitcher, but I've had it happen against me plenty.

Curtis · 05-20-2009, 03:56 PM

With me it went in streaks. Over the first ten games (I play out) I picked twenty guys. I complained about it to Markus, and he replied, 'sample size'. The next eight games I picked no one, but committed six errors trying. Over the past nine games I've only picked two, with one throwing error.

It would appear that Markus was right.

SteveP · 05-20-2009, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Curtis

It would appear that Markus was right.

Don't tell him that. We want to keep him off-balance.

05-16-2009, 11:21 AM	#3 (permalink)
TribeFanInNC Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 2,497 Thanked 253x in 204 posts	I've always thought there were too few. I've also thought that there should be rundown PbP to go along with it. A lot of pickoffs are rundowns. __________________ PEBA - Duluth Warriors

05-16-2009, 03:21 PM	#7 (permalink)
CRTsports.com Major Leagues Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Hixson, TN Posts: 392 Thanked 5x in 5 posts	I would say no also. I play all my teams games out and its a rare for there to be a pickoff at first. __________________ Offline Solo League Kansas City Royals - (630-665)(1-3) -- READ ABOUT IT HERE!!! -- 2004 81-81 -- 2005 64-98 -- 2006 54-108 -- 2007 72-90 -- 2008 76-85 -- 2009 89-73 -- 2010 86-76 -- 2011 108-54 (1-3) Central Division Champs ---------- --Currently 2012 49-22

05-18-2009, 10:40 PM	#10 (permalink)
TribeFanInNC Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 2,497 Thanked 253x in 204 posts	I have picked off guys at first with my pitcher. It seems to mostly be with lefties. I get a handful a season if I play all the games. __________________ PEBA - Duluth Warriors

05-20-2009, 03:56 PM	#13 (permalink)
Curtis Hall Of Famer Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Watertown, New York Posts: 4,530 Thanked 108x in 91 posts	With me it went in streaks. Over the first ten games (I play out) I picked twenty guys. I complained about it to Markus, and he replied, 'sample size'. The next eight games I picked no one, but committed six errors trying. Over the past nine games I've only picked two, with one throwing error. It would appear that Markus was right. __________________ 2012 — The year for Inside The Park 2!

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05-16-2009, 01:05 PM	#5 (permalink)
SteveP Moderator Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,768 Thanked 260x in 197 posts	I've tracked this (collected data) and compared to real life game logs. OOTP gets this pretty accurately. It's one of those stats where you have to look at a lot of games to get useful results. One of the things that most gamers don't see (because they sim or use the other methods of speeding things up) is how often pitchers throw over the first. This is heavily influenced by the hold runners setting in team strategies, and to a small extent (I think) by the hold runner ratings of the pitchers and the ratings of catchers (for POs by the catchers). So, you can get more or less PO attempts in a series of games than might occur IRL, which influences the number of successful attempts, and also the number of errors. At least from what I found, while one could quibble with the exact results, it isn't all that far off.

05-17-2009, 03:06 PM	#8 (permalink)
SteveP Moderator Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 2,768 Thanked 260x in 197 posts	I should have added that the game doesn't attempt to distinguish a successful PO where the runner is tagged at first, and the type of PO that results in a rundown. It would be cool if it did, but to some extent that is just cosmetics (that is, the runner is out either way, it's only a difference of who actually tagged him) unless the rundown situation allowed for alternative outcomes (for example, a throwing error). But that's a level of complexity the game hasn't gotten to (yet )

05-18-2009, 10:16 PM	#9 (permalink)
StyxNCa Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: Victoria, Texas Posts: 2,997 Thanked 177x in 105 posts	My pitchers can only PO guys on 2nd. They can never pull off a successful one at 1B. My guys can get PO at 1st though. My catcher has managed 4 PO's at 1B.